The Nuggets secured a series lead in Game 3 behind a dominant efforts from Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic.
The two stars were majestic on the road, Jokic dropped the first ever 30-20-10 in NBA Finals history while Jamal Murray posted a triple double. After winning 109-94 on Thursday night, can the Nuggets continue to outpace the Heat on the offensive end to take a commanding 3-1 series lead?
Let’s check out the odds and get to our best bet:
Nuggets vs. Heat odds, spread and total
Nuggets vs. Heat prediction and pick
While the score line looks dominant for the Nuggets, I still don’t think we have seen the team’s “A” game in any of the three NBA Finals games. The team has shot 32% from beyond the arc on an incredibly low rate, taking only 24 three’s per game. However, the team has traded three’s to dominate inside, shooting nearly 74% on two’s and almost 50% on mid-range jumpers, per Cleaning the Glass. Further, Denver is taking almost a third of its shots from at the rim this series. Miami is simply allowing too many easy buckets at the rim.
The Nuggets have a massive size advantage with the seven-footer Jokic roaming the painted area and 6’8″ Aaron Gordon looming in the dunker’s spot. Even on the perimeter, 6’10” Michael Porter Jr. presents a dangerous shot maker that can rise and fire over anyone. Denver has the size advantage and has ditched trying to go shot-for-shot with Miami and has decided to just pummel the opponent with efficient looks.
Denver also ratcheted up the defense as well. After allowing a ton of open looks in Game 1 and Game 2, 30 “open” looks, per NBA.com, and in the first half of Game 3, the Nuggets shut off the perimeter in the second half. Between the start of the second half and the final three minutes of the game (garbage time), the Heat shot 37% from the field and only hit four of 14 three’s while losing the rebounding battle by 15.
I expect Denver to take Game 4 again. The Nuggets flexed its star power in Game 3, needing 66 points from Jokic and Murray to keep pace on offense. The rest of the roster hit only one three-point shot. I expect Miami to adjust to try and shut down the Jokic-Murray two-man game, but that’s going to leave dead-eye shooters like MPJ and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope open, who will cash in on open looks off the star’s gravity.
The Heat are in a bad spot, and I’ll stick with the Nuggets to keep it rolling with a team effort and cover on Friday night.
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