A rigorous defender who profiles as one of the more complete two-way players in the draft, Cason Wallace is the latest Kentucky guard destined for NBA success.
A lot of talented guards populate the 2023 NBA Draft class, especially in the lottery range. Cason Wallace doesn’t possess flashy, high-flying athleticism to make scouts go nuts, but it’s hard to find a more complete 19-year-old in the back half of the lottery.
Wallace’s reputation is built on the defensive end. He has drawn comparisons to Jrue Holiday and De’Anthony Melton; perhaps a mild overestimation, but an indicator of how highly talent-evaluators think of Wallace. It’s very difficult to be a true game-changer on the defensive end as a 6-foot-4 guard. He’s a game-changer.
Defense is the foundation of Wallace’s appeal, but it’s not the entirety of it. He was central to Kentucky’s offense as both a facilitator and a scorer. He will need to find the right home at the next level, but Wallace can shoot 3s and keep the offense humming. He’s not one-dimensional; expect across-the-board contributions in the NBA.
Cason Wallace NBA Draft profile
Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 193 pounds
Birthdate: November 7, 2003
Position: Point Guard/Shooting Guard
Offensive Role: Secondary playmaker
Defensive Role: Do-it-all guard
Projected Draft Range: 7-14
NBA Draft highlights
Strengths
Wallace is an elite guard defender; rugged at the point of attack and absolutely elite off the ball. He’s not the springiest athlete, but Wallace fights over screens and goes full-tilt on every possession. He’s only 6-foot-4 in shoes, but he plays much bigger than his height thanks to a 6-foot-8 wingspan.
What makes Wallace special are his instincts. His nose for the ball is second to none; he sniffs out steals or weak-side blocks like a bloodhound sniffs out their next meal. No 2023 prospect is better at shooting the gaps and generating turnovers, by extension generating transition opportunities for the offense.
He’s everywhere on the floor, precise with his gambles and consistently in the right place to facilitate a stop. He will also crash the boards harder than your average point guard. His competitive spirit is going to be a real draw for NBA front offices.
On the offensive end, Wallace is already an efficient 3-point shooter. He’s most comfortable next to another playmaker, allowing him to space the floor and attack off the catch. That said, Wallace can run the pick-and-roll and create for others. He doesn’t have a high turnover rate and there’s reason to believe in his long-term scoring upside because of his soft touch around the rim. Wallace can smoke defenders with an array of floaters or touch shots in the middle of the floor.
The worst-case outcome for Wallace feels substantially better than most backend lottery guys. He’s too committed and capable on the defensive end and his offensive baseline is quite high. Not every prospect translates to the NBA, but it’s hard to imagine Wallace not scrapping his way to a role.
Weaknesses
Wallace should be a consistent positive on the offensive end, but it’s fair to question his ceiling relative to the slew of high-caliber guards in the lottery range. He lacks an elite first step, often struggling to turn the corner and gain separation off the dribble.
He has a nice floater game and he can get to his spots out of the pick-and-roll, but Wallace doesn’t do a ton of self-creation. He will need to be stationed next to another playmaking guard in the backcourt; Wallace is more connective tissue than offensive spearhead. That’s reflected in his approach too. Wallace often played far too passively at Kentucky.
On the surface, Wallace is a smaller guard with average athleticism. That is not inherently the most appealing physical profile. His defensive I.Q. is off the charts and he competes hard, but the league’s more explosive downhill guards will still test Wallace’s movement skills. On the offensive end, Wallace’s efficiency at the rim will be worth monitoring; how well does he fare against NBA length?
Conclusion
Wallace probably won’t ever reach the point of offensive stardom, but he feels like an exceedingly safe pick — be it for a contender seeking ready-now production or for a rebuilding squad in search of reliability. Wallace is going to avoid mistakes, splash 3s, and defend his heart out.
There’s also a fair amount of versatility in his skill set. Wallace is an easy plug-and-play option for just about any backcourt. A lot of lottery teams already have their primary playmaking engines in place — Indiana, Charlotte, New Orleans, OKC, Dallas, et al. Wallace should be able to supplement the offense without being overtaxed, all while providing instant-impact defense.
As of now, Wallace feels like a lottery lock. There are always a couple of surprises on draft night, but his résumé dating back to high school is too strong and he’s coming from a premier program with a long track record of producing NBA guards. Expect him to contribute sooner than later — and quickly ascend to fan-favorite status with whichever team selects him.