In, This Week in Playoff Mode, we’re breaking down five trends from the last week of the NBA Playoffs, along with what to watch for next.
We’re more than one week into the NBA playoffs, one series is already over and there have been plenty of surprises, unfortunate injuries and big-time performances. Here are five observations from the second weekend of the playoffs.
1. Rui Hachimura, one pass away
Most expected Rui Hachimura’s 29-point performance in Game 1 of the Lakers’ series against the Grizzlies to be a one-off, hot shooting night. It turns out, the Lakers have found something sustainable here.
Hachimura is averaging 28 minutes per game in this series, in part because the Lakers like his size against a physical Grizzlies team and want to put as much human tissue between Ja Morant and the basket as possible, but he’s also been making 75 percent of his 3-pointers in the playoffs. He’s a big reason why the Lakers are up 2-1.
Few expected Hachimura to be closing playoff games for the Lakers. It had been an up-and-down season for Hachimura, who never quite put it together in Washington before getting traded to the Lakers mid-season. Despite his physical gifts (6-foot-8, 230 pounds, runs the floor well), Hachimura struggled with his shooting consistency, decision making and defensive effort. Some of those issues flared up in Los Angeles after the trade, and there was a stretch in March when his minutes dipped. He then ended the season in a shooting rut, missing 16 of his final 18 3-point attempts over his last 10 games before the playoffs.
But then the playoff lights came on and Hachimura caught fire. He’s made nine 3-pointers in three games against the Grizzlies and is averaging 21.7 points on 66.7 percent shooting.
Playing for the Lakers simplifies things for Hachimura. He knows most of the opponent’s attention will be on LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and he’s carved out a role for himself by making quick decisions. With the trust of his teammates, he’s emerged as a release valve in some of the Lakers’ core actions.
On pick-and-rolls, he’s often positioned above the break, one pass away. When the Grizzlies send help to defend LeBron or Davis, it’s usually Hachimura’s defender that gets pulled into the action. That means Hachimura is almost guaranteed an opening if the ball comes his way, but that opening can close in a blink against Memphis’s active defense. It’s even more important, then, that Hachimura makes quick decisions with the ball. If he’s open, shoot it.
If the defense rotates hard, drive the closeout. Over and over, you see Hachimura positioned in the same spot opposite the Lakers’ pick-and-roll. Make quick decisions here and hit your jumpers, and you can waltz into 10 points a night in LeBron’s offense. Several LeBron teammates — J.R. Smith, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, etc. — have earned his trust by doing just that and played large roles for Finals teams.
Now it appears that Hachimura — who has played the third-most minutes of any Laker in fourth quarters of this series — is on his way to earning the trust of LeBron and the Lakers.
2. Philadelphia’s offseason additions paying off
With Joel Embiid sidelined with a sprained right knee and James Harden struggling in Philadelphia’s close-out Game 4 against the Nets on Saturday, the 76ers needed others to step up.
The Sixers went into the fourth quarter of Saturday’s win nursing a three-point lead. Harden had missed 11 of his 15 shots to that point and the Sixers were shooting 36 percent overall. With a chance to sweep the Nets and buy themselves important recovery time before the second round, there was plenty on the line.
That’s when De’Anthony Melton delivered his most important stretch in a 76ers uniform. He rattled off 15 points, including two on a tough drive through three defenders, to seal the win and the sweep.
It was a big series for Melton, P.J. Tucker and Jalen McDaniels — the three new additions the 76ers made following last season’s second-round loss to the Miami Heat. It was a disappointing exit for the organization, especially considering that they never got to see their team at full strength after Embiid suffered a facial fracture and Harden labored through two playoff rounds. But it was also enlightening. The supporting cast wasn’t good enough, so the Sixers went out and acquired Tucker and Melton in the offseason and traded for McDaniels before the deadline.
Melton’s scoring as a third guard behind Harden (who struggled in the series) and Tyrese Maxey bailed out the offense.
Tucker, meanwhile, made the Tucker-ish impact you’d expect, fighting for rebounds, barking out orders on defense and setting off-ball screens to spring teammates open for 3-pointers.
McDaniels chipped in a modest 13 points and 11 rebounds for the series, but his length was an important factor in guarding a gangly Nets offense.
Besides the highest earners on the team — Embiid, Harden, Maxey and Tobias Harris — those three rounded out Philly’s top seven in plus-minus for the series. One series isn’t enough for total proof of concept, but it’s an indication that Philadelphia’s offseason tweaks are paying off.
3. Domantas Sabonis, attacking space
The Warriors have apparently decided that the Kings’ offense is most dangerous when Sabonis is screening and passing to De’Aaron Fox or Malik Monk, and are defending accordingly.
In Game 4 on Sunday, Kevon Looney spent most possessions in drop coverage, positioned to corral Fox or Monk on the drives that shredded Golden State’s defense in the first two meetings. It’s uncharacteristic of what you typically think of Golden State’s dynastic, switching defense, but it worked. Fox and Monk combined to miss 13 shots in the paint and took more 3s than they’d like. The Kings don’t want a shootout with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole. To win two of the next three, the Kings will need to get to the basket and dominate the paint the way they did in Sacramento.
Domantas Sabonis has to punish the Warriors when they sag off him. He’s too big, strong and skilled to settle for jumpers when Looney is hanging 10 feet away, as he did within the first two minutes of Game 4. Perhaps Sabonis didn’t expect to be left that open, but long 2s don’t play to his strengths and certainly aren’t the shots you want against Golden State’s hyper-efficient offense.
It didn’t take long for Sabonis to adjust. One minute later, he encounters the same coverage. You can see Mike Brown turn to his staff and point, wondering why Sabonis isn’t attacking that space. While Brown’s back is turned, that’s exactly what Sabonis did a few minutes later, bullying Kevon Looney to the basket for a layup.
He still settled for a few midrange jumpers but mostly tried to get going on the runway Golden State provided. He does need to be careful to avoid offensive fouls, especially against savvy positional defenders like Looney and Green.
Still, even if Sabonis continues to attack the space in front of him, the Warriors will likely still play their drop. They are far more worried about Fox and Monk dicing up their defense from the inside-out than Sabonis drop-stepping his way to 30 points.
I’ve liked when the Kings get out of their side-to-side stuff and attack more directly on the pick-and-roll. With Golden State’s defenders chasing over Sabonis screens, Fox and Monk can use their speed to get downhill and force Golden State’s dropping center to make a decision. The adjustments in this series have been great already, and we still have more to go.
4. When the Suns are scariest
A lot has been written and recorded about how the Suns’ stars are still feeling each other out. The offense can get stagnant, with Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Kevin Durant and Deandre Ayton retreating to their respective stations and waiting for the ball to come to them. There’s also stuff like this in the film when Durant and Booker literally ran into each other.
But there are glimpses of what the Suns can look like when the gears are oiled and working together. The Suns are good enough to meander through a set and still get a bucket, but I love when they move with intent and play off each other’s gravitational pulls. Here, Booker springs up from the corner behind a down screen from Torrey Craig. Because it’s Durant making the pass, Eric Gordon can’t help as Booker curls, drives into the paint and makes a jumper against one-on-one coverage. It’s simple, but it works.
More importantly, it’s fast. This whole sequence takes about four seconds. The Suns are averaging 20 shots per game in the final 7 seconds of the shot clock during the playoffs. That’s way too much time to work for a shot when you have this kind of offensive talent (and also rely on a ton on midrange 2s as opposed to 3s).
More stuff like this, please.
5. The best matchup in the East: Jimmy vs Jrue
With Giannis Antetokounmpo limited to just 11 minutes because of a back injury, Jimmy Butler vs Jrue Holiday has become the most entertaining matchup of the series ‚— and maybe of the first round in the East.
NBA players recently named Holiday the best defender in the league but, based on the way Butler is attacking him this series, I’m not sure he knows or cares. Through three games, Butler is averaging 30 points on 60 percent shooting to lead the Miami Heat to a surprising 2-1 lead over the No. 1 seed Milwaukee Bucks.
It’s not surprising to see Butler ramp things up in the playoffs, but it’s made more impressive by what he’s doing when the NBA’s best defender is assigned to him. With Holiday guarding him, Butler has made 13 of 23 (56.5 perent) shots and has five assists.
Holiday is physical and instinctual. He sticks to ball handlers like a remora on a great white. Butler is big and strong. An apex predator at the top of the playoff food chain.
So far, Butler has gotten the better of Holiday, but Holiday has made him feel it. Because Holiday defends without fouling, Butler’s free throw attempts have gone from 8.7 per game in the regular season to just 7 in the playoffs. Butler will have to keep making tough shots to keep anchoring Miami’s offense in this series. We could also see Holiday be more aggressive with Butler at the point of attack.
Of course, Giannis reportedly returning for Monday night’s Game 4 changes a lot. It injects perhaps the best help defender in the league back into Milwaukee’s defense and changes the order of the marquee. But expect Butler vs Holiday to still be a central matchup in this series.
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