Only four teams are in action in the NBA on Thursday, but the league is treating us to a couple of great matchups, starting with the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks.
I have a player prop pick and a side in that game, as Boston looks to inch closer to the No. 1 seed in the closing days of the 2022-23 season.
In the second game between the Denver Nuggets and New Orleans Pelicans, I have a player prop play since Nikola Jokic (calf, questionable) is still up in the air for the matchup. Check my Twitter @peterdewey2, where I may add another pick once his status is revealed.
Let’s break down Thursday’s action:
NBA best bets record to date
- NBA best bets record for 2022-23 season: 255-216-2 (+10.4489 units)
NBA best bets today
- Boston Celtics +2 (-110) vs. Milwaukee Bucks
- Al Horford OVER 8.5 Points (-125)
- Aaron Gordon UNDER 9.5 Rebounds and Assists (-120)
Boston Celtics +2 (-110) vs. Milwaukee Bucks
I bet on Boston against the Washington Wizards on Tuesday and the team was blown out as an 11-point favorite, but that’s not scaring me away here.
The Bucks played a closer game than they would have liked last night against the Indiana Pacers, and even though they are 9-1-1 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back this season, Boston is the toughest opponent it could face.
The Celtics are 4-1 ATS when set as road dogs this season, and this is a prime bounce-back spot against a Bucks team that they competed against with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown both out ahead of the All-Star break.
This game is truly a toss up with so much talent on both sides, but I like Boston catching two points and a rest advantage here.
Al Horford OVER 8.5 Points (-125)
In a game of a ton of stars, my favorite prop is for… Al Horford?
That’s right! The veteran big man has been shooting the ball extremely well from beyond the arc recently (51.0 percent over his last 17 games), and he should see a few open looks against a Bucks team that has shown it will allow Boston’s role players to take shots from deep.
Milwaukee deployed that strategy in the postseason, and Horford has actually thrived against the Bucks in his last five regular season games against them, scoring nine or more points in each game.
In the playoffs last season, Horford cleared this line in four of the seven games of the series. I’ll back him to have a big game tonight.
Aaron Gordon UNDER 9.5 Rebounds and Assists (-120)
This is a tricky number to figure out for Aaron Gordon on most nights, but recently he’s really toned things down in terms of his rebounds and assists numbers.
The Denver Nuggets forward has failed to clear this line in eight of his last 10 games, and he’s actually fallen below 9.5 rebounds and assists for his season averages.
Gordon is averaging 6.5 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game, and he has a tough matchup on the glass tonight.
New Orleans ranks fifth in the NBA in rebounding percentage, and I expect Gordon to draw the defensive assignment on Brandon Ingram which should take him away from the basket in this game.
Take the UNDER until Gordon starts hitting the glass at a higher rate.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.