Friday night brings us a bunch of NBA action, but I’m focusing my efforts on two games on the slate for today’s best bets.
We’re starting with a prop and side in the Miami Heat-Dallas Mavericks game, and we’re ending the night with a play on the Oklahoma City Thunder, a favorite of mine this season.
After going 1-2 yesterday, I’m ready to bounce back in tonight’s action. Let’s dive in:
NBA best bets record to date
NBA best bets today
- Bam Adebayo OVER 31.5 Points and Rebounds (-140)
- Miami Heat Moneyline (-115) vs. Dallas Mavericks
- Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5 (-110) vs. Sacramento Kings
Bam Adebayo OVER 31.5 Points and Rebounds (-140)
We’re starting with a Bam Adebayo prop tonight, as he’s been dominant for Miami as of late, clearing 31.5 points and rebounds in eight of his last 10 games.
This matchup is a dream for Adebayo, as Dallas ranks dead last in the NBA in rebounding percentage this season and is without Christian Wood, arguably its best interior defender. The Mavericks allow 49.9 points per game in the paint, and Adebayo leads the NBA in that category this season.
Over his last 11 games, Adebayo is averaging 23.5 points and 10.9 rebounds per game, which is well clear of his prop number for this game.
I love this OVER for Bam to get the night started.
Miami Heat Moneyline (-115) vs. Dallas Mavericks
Sticking with the Heat game, I love Miami to cover in this game.
Both of these teams have struggled at covering the spread this season, but Dallas ranks dead least in the NBA ATS this season. The Mavs are 8-12-1 ATS as home favorites, and their recent play is a huge cause for concern.
Over the last 10 games, the Heat rank fifth in the NBA in net rating compared to Dallas at 26th (!!). The Mavericks have been brutal defensively, ranking dead last in the NBA in defensive rating over that stretch.
With Wood, the team’s second leading scorer, out for Dallas, I love the Heat to win this game on the road.
Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5 (-110) vs. Sacramento Kings
There isn’t a team in the NBA better as a road underdog than the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are 14-5 ATS in that spot this season.
The Thunder are the best team in the league against the spread, covering at a 64.4 percent clip, the only team with a cover rate above 60 percent this season.
OKC ranks 12th in the NBA in net rating, just four spots behind the Sacramento Kings who are eighth, and they have been brutally underrated in the market all season long. The Kings are just 8-8 ATS as home favorites this season, so I think OKC can at least keep this close, if not upset.
Until the Thunder falter as underdogs, I’m going to keep betting on them.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
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