What do you do when there are a ton of injuries in the NBA and you’re looking to bet?
Only bet where you feel comfortable. Sometimes, we feel obligated to place bets on games, but if you don’t have a good feeling, there’s no harm in staying away.
That’s what I’m doing for the most part tonight, sticking with just two plays on the slate, including a player prop that I think is a value because of an injury to All-Star point guard Trae Young.
We’ve gone 20-7 in our picks over the last nine days, so let’s keep the wins coming with a two-pick slip on Wednesday:
NBA best bets today record to date
NBA best bets today
- Indiana Pacers +5 (-120) vs. New York Knicks
- Dejounte Murray OVER 23.5 Points (-115)
Indiana Pacers +5 (-120) vs. New York Knicks
This is a huge matchup in the Eastern Conference playoff race, as the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers are fighting for the No. 6 seed in the conference.
Indiana comes into this game with the best against the spread record in the NBA and a 9-7 ATS record as a road underdog this season.
The Knicks, on the other hand, have struggled at Madison Square Garden, going 6-8-1 ATS as home favorites.
RJ Barrett (questionable) could return for the Knicks tonight, but I’m still not out on Indiana covering, mainly because of its strong 3-point shooting.
Indiana ranks fourth in the league in 3-pointers made per game and ninth in 3-point percentage.
The Knicks have struggled to shoot the 3-ball, ranking 26th in the league in 3-point percentage. The first game these two teams played went down to the wire, and I expect a similar result on Wednesday night.
Dejounte Murray OVER 23.5 Points (-115)
This is a value spot for Dejounte Murray, who has been dominant in three games without Young this season, averaging 27.7 points per game.
Young is out tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks with an illness, which means Murray is going to run the Atlanta Hawks offense himself tonight.
Murray has a tough matchup against Jrue Holiday, but his usage numbers have skyrocketed this season when Young sits.
In the 2022-23 campaign, Murray takes 17.6 shots per game with Young playing and 24.0 when he’s out.
I think an extra seven shots gives him a great chance to go OVER 23.5 points, especially since he’s averaged 20.4 points per game on the season.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
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