The Heat caught fire en route to an NBA Finals appearance last season, but it will be difficult for Miami to match that feat this year.
Erik Spoelstra and his coaching staff deserve a ton of credit for their work to get the Heat playing their best basketball at the right time last season. They found the perfect formula for success in the Bubble and parlayed it into a Finals appearance. Miami came up short against the Lakers, but there’s no shame in losing to LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
The Heat enter the 2020-21 season with the talent required to win the Eastern Conference once again, but they’ll face stiff competition. The team will count on internal improvement from their young players to overcome the departure of Jae Crowder in free agency. If Spoelstra wants to lead his team to the promised land this year, he’ll need a lot of things to break in his favor. Keep a close eye on the following five questions in South Beach.
1. What percent odds do the Heat have of returning to the Finals in 2021?
The aforementioned departure of Crowder will be a big issue. The Heat don’t really have another big wing ready to take his spot in the crunch time lineup. Moe Harkless isn’t a bad player, but he’s an obvious downgrade over what Crowder gave the Heat during last year’s postseason.
The franchise is counting on Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, and Kendrick Nunn to improve enough to overcome the loss of Crowder. In a vacuum, the quartet will comfortably achieve that goal in terms of sheer production. The problem is that none of those young guys does what Crowder did for this team a season ago.
That subtle distinction is why the Heat don’t enter this season as Eastern Conference favorites. That honor goes to the Milwaukee Bucks. Miami only has a 20% chance of returning to the Finals.
2. How much does Goran Dragic have left in the tank?
Dragic’s resurgence powered the Heat to the Finals where his injury-induced absence effectively ended any chance Miami had of winning the title. Expect the Heat to limit his minutes carefully in the regular-season to prepare him for what they hope to be a lengthy playoff run.
Expect Dragic to be a steady third guard for this team who flashes occasional signs of brilliance. He will continue to be a borderline All-Star on the offensive end, but his defensive weaknesses will weight his overall impact down. The end is near for Dragic, but he’ll still be a positive force for Miami this season.
3. Does Tyler Herro’s reputation improve, regress, or stay the same this season?
Herro’s performance in the Bubble made him a cult hero of sorts for Heat fans. For that reason, he’s almost certainly going to see his reputation regress this season.
The good news for Miami is that his play on the court will actually improve. Specifically, look for Herro to find a way to get more three-point shots up in his sophomore campaign. Upping that average from last year’s mark of 5.4 attempts per night to somewhere between seven and eight would create a lot more space for the Heat’s halfcourt offense.
4. What performative act will Jimmy Butler pull this year to prove he works harder than anyone else?
Butler is a terrific talent, but it is his maniacal work ethic that permits him to be a killer when the playoffs come around. He can’t afford to see any slippage in terms of his work-rate if he wants to remain an All-Star level player.
Fortunately for Heat fans, Butler isn’t wired in a way that will permit him to slack off. That means he’ll continue to work like a maniac this year. If he can find a way to improve his three-point stroke he could quickly become a dominant isolation scorer. Look for him to up his average from distance almost 10 points to approach 35 percent this year.
5. If Bam Adebayo were a fast-food menu item, what would he be?
Adebayo is one of the most versatile big men in the NBA. He can block shots, rebound, and switch out on the perimeter to shutdown guards off the dribble. That makes him the french fries of any Miami value meal.
Serving as a high-quality side item also epitomizes what Adebayo gives the Heat on the offensive end. He’s never going to be their first option as a post scorer, but he gives the offense value as a screener and rim-runner. He’s the perfect complimentary piece, just like elite french fries next to a sumptuous fast-food burger.