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The Miami Heat are in a deep dark hole — trailing 1-0, looking to shake off an 18-point Game 1 loss and probably do it without two of the three best players (Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo are doubtful for Game 2 with a plantar fascia tear and a shoulder strain, respectively). Voshon Lenard and P.J. Brown aren’t walking through that door which means the Heat have to overcome the longest of odds with the pieces they already have.
What went wrong for the Heat in Game 1 that could break in their favor in Game 2?
Mean progression from beyond the arc: Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson combined to shoot 2-of-11 from beyond the arc in Game 1 — they’d been shooting 38.9 percent on 3-pointers in the playoffs to that point. Meanwhile, the Lakers bench was doing a miraculous Glen Rice impression, at least for the first half. Setting aside the issue of shot quality, there’s a good chance the Lakers don’t shoot as well and the Heat don’t shoot as poorly in Game 2.
Jimmy Butler getting more than five free throws: This was somewhat a function of garbage time and him playing just 33 minutes but Butler had been averaging 9.2 free throws per game in the first three rounds of the playoffs. Without Dragic’s and Adebayo’s playmaking, Butler may need to take on a larger creation load and that’s going to mean a lot of bulldozing drives to the rim. The Lakers have a stout interior defense but if he’s getting a step on his man and forcing calls it could help the Heat generate some easy points, get some of that swagger back and potentially wear down Anthony Davis and LeBron a bit.
Duncan Robinson getting up some shots: The mechanisms the Heat use to get shots for Robinson are going to be somewhat hampered without Dragic and Adebayo, but they desperately need his movement and the pressure it puts on the defense. He was repeatedly targeted on defense by the Lakers in Game 1 but didn’t have a chance to earn any of it back, missing all three of his shots. Even if it’s just simple drive-and-kicks, hoisting 3s with that quick release over aggressive closeouts, he can still give Miami a lot more on offense.
Tyler Herro gets heroic: Like Robinson, Herro was targeted, and exploited, a lot on defense and he didn’t do much on offense to make up for it. Counting on another 37-point explosion is not a position of power for the Heat, but it’s not like, impossible.
LeBron wears himself out trying to score: The Heat worked hard to make LeBron a passer in Game 1, particularly in the first half. He mostly obliged but and it blew up in their faces as Danny Green and Markeiff Morris went off. But if they can execute similarily (no easy feat without Adebayo), and some of those Lakers’ shots stop falling LeBron may have to try and force his way through Butler, Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala. The defensive plan was as sound as could be expected but it was mostly subverted by hot shooting from average shooters. If that falls apart the Heat could actually see it through the way it was supposed to work. But, again, it’s a lot harder without Adebayo.
If it feels like these ideas are all a big stretch, it’s because…they are.
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