The Miami Heat win with depth and versatility. The Los Angeles Lakers win with star power. Which style will win out in the NBA Finals?
When LeBron James left Miami to rejoin the Cavaliers in 2014, creating a still unrepaired rift between James and his former team, neither the Heat nor the Lakers appeared remotely close to championship contention. Now, more than six calendar years later, the Heat are all that stands between LeBron and a fourth NBA title — this time as a member of the Lakers. His seismic departure in 2014 destabilized an aging core, leaving Miami with little to build upon without James as a foundation. The Heat toiled in mediocrity long enough to draft Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro — all of whom played central roles in bringing Miami here — and gradually reverse course.
By that point, the Lakers had already begun a freefall that left them with the fewest wins in the NBA between 2014 and 2019 and almost no means of moving forward beyond a profound sense of Lakers Exceptionalism. But that was enough to lure James in the summer of 2018, and a year later L.A. flipped all of its promising long-term assets for another star to pair with him. Neither L.A. nor Miami even made the playoffs a season ago; now they meet at the season’s pinnacle.
LeBron James is not the only thing that connects the Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers
For the duration of the time the two franchises spent in the wilderness, James remained the best player in basketball. This postseason, he’s only tightened his grip on the mantle. After 17 seasons, nine Finals appearances, and more than 10,500 playoff minutes, there’s still no player in the NBA as inexorable as James, who wields a level of command over the game that Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, and Steph Curry never quite reached, even at their peaks.
The theory of the Lakers’ roster relies upon that fact; L.A. bet, not unwisely, that James and Anthony Davis — on paper, the second-best player in these Finals — would be so immutable as to mask the many notable limitations of a precarious supporting cast.
Miami operates under the opposite premise: that a versatile ensemble of complementary players with few weak links would compensate for the lack of a single superstar. Jimmy Butler, Adebayo, and Goran Dragić have all played like All-Stars in the postseason, yet even an ardent Heat supporter would concede there are at least eight better players in the NBA than Butler. That’s no slight at Butler or the Heat, but rather validation of a star-less approach and a testament to the difficulty of winning that way. Miami wins by being smart, balanced, and unpredictable on both ends. It’s difficult to win consistently without a constantly flowing source of offense, yet Miami has enough collective firepower that the well seldom runs dry. An opponent may be able to contain one or two offensive threats, but slowing down the larger machine is a different matter. In this series, each team will employ one approach while trying to stop the other, creating a fascinating stylistic contrast.
The central challenge for any LeBron opponent is finding some way to disrupt his offensive rhythm. For that task, Miami is reasonably well-suited, though no team can really subdue James over the course of a playoff series. LeBron is too smart and too overwhelming for a single scheme to work for more than a game or two, and the Heat have both the personnel and the coaching flexibility to show him different looks. Butler, Adebayo, Andre Iguodala, and Jae Crowder will likely all spend time on James, and Erik Spoelstra will almost certainly pivot to a zone defense at certain moments — if not right away. The Lakers, however, pose a different challenge for that 2-3 zone than the Celtics did. In the Eastern Conference Finals Miami placed its forwards — usually some combination of Butler, Crowder, and Iguodala — at the top of the formation to prevent drives and force profitable live-ball turnovers at the point of attack while the guards covered smaller zones in the corners of the floor:
Boston couldn’t create seams against bigger defenders or punish the smaller ones, and its offense stalled. James and Davis pose a considerably greater challenge on both fronts and have the luxury of watching where the Celtics found offensive success. The Heat need length and strength at the top of the key to prevent LeBron from penetrating the zone, but managing the scorching Davis also requires size and strength inside the arc. No matter where Spoelstra hides Dragić, Tyler Herro, or Duncan Robinson, L.A. will have a place to attack.
The Heat can rearrange their zone to keep more defenders in Davis and James’ vicinity and help more easily, or simply play man-to-man with more conventional on-ball coverages and help responsibilities. Depending on James’ minute load, Miami might use his time off the floor to make a push with its zone. Still, playing man-to-man makes the James-Davis two-man game a more devastating weapon, and Adebayo can’t serve as Davis’ primary defender and an anchor at the rim. (Could we see Meyers Leonard re-emerge as a defensive specialist?) Neither configuration needs to stall the Lakers out entirely; Miami just needs enough different viable looks to avoid becoming predictable. The Heat will force the other Lakers to make shots and smart decisions — two slightly worrying variables for L.A. — in order to track James and Davis.
Miami, at the very least, can take some comfort in knowing what it’s up against; you may not stop Davis and James, but you can at least see them coming in time to make an effort. The Lakers will have more — albeit less dangerous — threats to mind. L.A. boasts arguably the best individual interior defender in the NBA and the third-ranked defense in the playoffs, but the Heat recently found enough openings against an even stingier group in the Conference Finals, and their multifaceted offense remains difficult for any defense to solve. James and Davis may be straightforward matchups for Butler and Adebayo in smaller lineups, but the Heat’s playmaking depth and versatility will put pressure on the rest of the Lakers’ defenders.
The Laker guards won’t give the Heat any obvious weak points to attack, as the Celtics did, but L.A.’s guards could still struggle to contain Dragić, arguably the primary catalyst of Miami’s offense, off the bounce. Bigger lineups could keep interior lurkers like Howard or McGee lying in wait, though Crowder’s shooting could lead the Lakers to dial back their rim protection and thus open creases for Butler and Dragić. Herro’s creation and shot-making will be crucial bellwethers in the series, while Danny Green and Alex Caruso must be diligent chasing Robinson as he orbits the action without the ball and releases hair-trigger jumpers.
Spoelstra will face tough choices between defensive-minded wings the Lakers will dare to shoot and sharpshooters who might be targeted on the other end of the floor, though Vogel will face a similar dilemma deciding whether to surround his best players with limited floor spacers or non-shooting playmakers. Striking those balances won’t be easy, and the formulas may change by the game. Part of this postseason’s intrigue has been the absence of a perfect, nuclear option and the multiplicity of styles that have flourished as a result. No team is without flaws. The Heat have more possible solutions to theirs, but the Lakers might have the only one that matters.