The Deadline Should Be Fun
The February 7th, 2019 NBA Trade Deadline is just around the corner, and given the number of high profile names said to be available, it could make this one of the more interesting deadlines to watch.
Historically, there are usually 10 to 14 deadline transactions per year, with most of them being cap-related moves to shed an ending contract or to move off unwanted players or contracts. It’s been pretty rare to see a large number of named players dealt at the deadline; those moves usually happen before the 11th hour. The fact that there are so many All-Stars or would-be All-Stars being talked about in the marketplace could make this year’s deadline something of an outlier.
While the trade market is always fluid, here are some of the names to watch over the next six or seven days as teams try and make sense of what’s a real asking price and what is simply fishing for a deal.
The news that New Orleans star Anthony Davis has informed the Pelicans he will not sign a contract extension and has asked to be traded shouldn’t be too surprising. Typically, when a player changes agents before free agency, that usually signals that player isn’t happy, and that’s turned out to be true for the Pelicans.
The Pelicans have cried foul to the league office on the whole ordeal, mainly because there is a sense internally that not only was Davis tampered with, but that his representation may have killed the team’s ability to extract a good return. The Pelicans seem to believe that his agent is responsible for floating the idea that Davis will walk to the LA Lakers when he hits unrestricted free agency.
The Pelicans have issued statements saying they will deal Davis on their terms and timing, but there is a real sense among NBA teams that if a team offered a blow-the-doors-off package, it could get Davis at the deadline. Despite the Pelicans’ stance that they would prefer to explore deals in the offseason when they can do more around the draft or in July in free agency, they have opened a window for a deal now.
There are a few teams to watch. It’s believed the Lakers will make an all-in offer for Davis, as will the Knicks and Raptors.
A dark horse in all of it might be the Portland Trail Blazers. Leagues source have labeled the Blazers as being aggressive in trying to find one more star-level guy to pair with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. Given the youth, ending contracts and future picks the Blazers could offer, they could be an interesting option, especially if it does not cost Lillard or McCollum.
A New York Knicks deal is said to be centered on their 2019 first round draft pick and a ton of ending contracts and upside young guys.
The prevailing thought is, barring something silly being offered in the coming days, the Pelicans are more likely to wait out a Boston Celtics offer after Kyrie Irving opts out of his Designated Rookie contract extension. The NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement prohibits a team from trading for two Designated Rookie contracts as a means to close salary cap loopholes.
Davis can’t be traded to Boston until Irving is out of his deal which is expected in July.
The Celtics are believed by most league insiders to have the best package of players and future picks to offer.
The Pelicans are absolutely open for business on Davis and others; the question is will anyone offer enough value to get the Pelicans off the dime before 3 pm EST next Thursday.
The Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies have kicked the tires on a number of deals for both center Marc Gasol and point guard Mike Conley. The prevailing thoughts from NBA teams that have engaged the Grizzlies is that it is going to take a big deal to get either marquee player, and taking on Chandler Parson’s contract might be a requirement of any eventual deal.
There are a couple of teams to watch specific to Gasol, the top being the Portland Trail Blazers. Sources close to the situation labeled the Blazers as the more likely team to land Gasol if the Grizzlies do a deal, but there was not a sense that anything was close enough to call. Gasol himself has talked about the San Antonio Spurs, and there seems to be some interest on the Spurs’ part in making a deal. But it’s unclear what the Spurs could or would offer to consummate a deal. Gasol has a player option for next season worth $25.5 million.
Conely seems to be the Grizzly that could garner the biggest return, especially given that he is under contract for one more guaranteed year before his $34.5 million team option year in 2020.
The Orlando Magic and the Phoenix Suns were said to have explored a Conley deal. It does not seem like either took it very far, although that could change in the coming weeks.
Both teams have the right combination of young guys, ending contracts and future draft picks to construct a package for Conley, and both could reasonably take on the $24.1 million left on Parson’s deal this year and carry the ending $25.1 million for next year if they didn’t look at buyouts.
The Grizzlies seem motivated to make a deal. The big challenge in any deal is the difficulty in doing three/four player for one deals in-season, as those kinds of deals tend to be easier in the offseason when teams have open roster spots or can carry extra players during the summer.
Portland Is A Team To Watch
With the passing of Blazers’ owner Paul Allen, there was a sense that the days of the Blazers wheeling and dealing would likely be over, however more and more NBA teams label the Blazers as the team to watch at the deadline.
The Blazers currently sit in fourth place in the West and have won seven of their last 10. There is at least a desire by management to explore what they can add to push them legitimately into the championship discussion, because, like other teams, they understand organizationally they are on the clock with Damian Lillard.
The Blazers have a bunch of mid-dollar contracts to offer in trades, most ending after next season. While the Blazers don’t have ending money now, they seem to have a continued appetite to take on money if it pushes them into the NBA elite.
The Blazers are said to have eyes on both Anthony Davis and Marc Gasol; the question is can they cobble together a package to get a deal done that doesn’t include Lillard of CJ McCollum?
The Knicks Have Been Active
The New York Knicks have been trying to find deals to move off big man Enes Kanter and guard Courtney Lee. That’s no big secret. They have been looking for some time with little to no interest that didn’t include the Knicks taking back salary, something they are not open to.
The Knicks have also recently opened the door on deals involving guards Frank Ntilikina and Trey Burke. According to teams that have talked with the Knicks about these players, it seems both could be gone by the deadline.
The Knicks are also one of the teams gearing up for a big offer for Anthony Davis, said to be built around its unprotected first-round draft pick in the 2019 draft, which – if the lottery holds true to the standings – could be the second or third pick.
There is a sense that Davis would be open to an extension in New York, which is why dangling an unprotected pick that could be a top overall selection would make sense.
The Knicks are absolutely a team to watch at the deadline; they seem to be motivated to make a couple of deals, even if they miss out on Davis.
Is Orlando A Seller?
The Orlando Magic have waffled on what they really are as a team all year. Some nights, they look like a playoff team and others, a lottery team. With the Magic sitting at 20-30 with roughly a week to go before the deadline it seems far more likely the Magic sell off their ending contracts than try and add.
The plan all along in Orlando was to develop around Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac and rookie Mo Bamba. The hope was the existing core would be good enough to get the young guys some playoff experience and get the franchise back into the post-season in hopes of luring in a top-level free agent guard.
With each passing week, the odds of a playoff berth seem to be dwindling, and most teams that have been after the Magic’s veterans feel like the Magic will be sellers, specifically forward Terrence Ross and Jonathon Simmons.
The X-Factors for the Magic are center Nikola Vucevic and swingman Evan Fournier. It’s hard to envision both in the Magic’s longer term, but there is a sense that the Magic doesn’t want to part with either unless it returned an All-Star level talent.
The Magic have been very active over the last few weeks gauging the market on what they can do, so there is a belief the Magic are going to be sellers. The question is, which guys get sold off?
Will The Lakers Deal?
The LA Lakers’ dream scenario has arrived, Anthony Davis is available, and they are not going to sit this out.
Sources close to the situation are mirroring what’s being reported, that the Lakers are prepared to make a monster offer for Davis that could include anyone not named LeBron James.
The Lakers value a lot of their young guys and wouldn’t include everything they have in a deal for Davis, but there is a belief that the Pelicans could have their choice of three of the Lakers’ young guys to make a Davis deal before next Thursday.
The Lakers have been active in looking at options before the Davis trade request, but with the Pelicans now listening, the Lakers are not going to mess around according to sources close to the situation.
The problem for the Lakers is they can’t force the Pelicans to take a deal; they can only make an attractive offer.
The Pelicans have been direct that it’s going to take something major for them to consider a deal now, and the Lakers understand they have to be aggressive if they want Davis now.
Basketball Insiders will roll out our annual NBA Trade Deadline Diary on Tuesday February 5th. We’ll log and track every rumor and every deal in the all the way up to the 3pm EST deadline, so stay tuned.
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