Nikola Jokic, #15, Denver Nuggets, (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
The Denver Nuggets may not be a top-tier contender but they’re definitely ready to play spoiler in the NBA playoffs.
The Nuggets’ odds of making it through the Western Conference seem slim. 538 gives them just a three percent chance of making it to the NBA Finals, behind the Lakers, Clippers and Rockets. Even if you were forced to reach for a dark horse contender outside that group, more than few people would go for the Jazz or even Mavericks over the Nuggets.
Denver did have the ninth-best point differential in the league when the season was suspended but they’ve also had confirmed COVID-19 diagnoses for Nikola Jokic, Gary Harris and Torrey Craig, and one presumed for Michael Porter Jr. All are expected to be healthy by the time play resumes but we still don’t know if there will be lingering effects for their fitness less or from missing crucial practice time.
That being side, the Nuggets are absolutely one of the most talented teams in the conference and someone in that Lakers-Clippers-Rockets group is going to have to get past them to punch a Finals ticket.
So how do you beat the Denver Nuggets in a playoff series?
Attack off the dribble: Nikola Jokic’s style of rim-protection is more ground-bound obstacle than aerial deterrent. He’s a more impactful defender than he’s generally given credit for but he’s vulnerable, particularly when Jerami Grant is not on the floor and if an opponent can use a stretchier big to draw Paul Millsap out of the paint.
The other issue is the Nuggets’ lack of depth on the wing. According to Krishna Narsu’s defensive position stats, Torrey Craig and Gary Harris were the team’s defenders who spent the greatest portion of their possessions matched up with the opponents’ No. 1 offensive option — over 50 percent, combined. On the wing, the next players with the most experience defending primary options this season were Jamal Murray and Will Barton, at 12.6 and 11.6 percent of their possessions, respectively.
This is mostly an issue because neither Craig or Harris actually arrived in Orlando to join the Nuggets until Jul. 20. Even though they were able to eventually join the team they are recovering from a serious illness having missed considerable practice time.
It seems macabre to point out a weakness that’s opened by the pandemic but Denver’s perimeter defense was already shaky. If the Nuggets have to play Millsap or Grant more minutes on the wing to cover for Harris and Craig, it’s only going to make them more vulnerable.
Invite Jamal Murray into the middle of the floor: Teams used a variety of strategies to defend the Nuggets this season and each strategic choice changes the balance of likely outcomes. Denver is an incredibly deep, talented and versatile offensive team so there aren’t many good options, only slightly less-bad ones.
Out of all likely outcomes of a Nuggets’ offensive possession, Murray pulling up from the mid-range is probably one of the best for the defense. Murray is a willing and increasingly accurate pull-up shooter, 70th percentile this season, but even at 0.958 points per possession, it’s probably a win for the defense. For reference, the Nuggets averaged 1.12 points per possession as a team across the entire season.
The easiest way to encourage more Murray pull-ups is to play drop coverage in pick-and-rolls, accepting the switch and having the big man drift back, walling off the basket but opening space at the elbows.
Murray will hit plenty of these shots but over the long run, these shots have a much lower expected value than his teammates getting catch-and-shoot opportunities beyond the arc or dropping off no-look dimes to cutters. The obvious complicating factor is dealing with Jokic’s rolls to the basket or pops into space from these sets. If Murray is chewing up some of the space that he’s given and then slinging it back to Jokic with a bent defense in front of him, things could get complicated in a hurry.
This strategy looks fairly passive but actually requires tons of communication between the big and small defenders in the pick-and-roll, precise execution and plenty of awareness from the supporting wing defenders. But if a defense can make a pull-up seem like the most appealing shot for Murray, he’ll keep taking them.
Don’t worry so much about Gary Harris, Jerami Grant or Torrey Craig spotting up. Denver’s offense forces a defense into tough decisions and in almost every case, the best choice for the defense is to be paying attention to Jokic, Murray or whoever might be coming free at the rim. Harris still has a residual reputation as a spot-up threat but he’s shot just 33.6 percent from behind the arc over the past two seasons, he made just 36.7 percent of his catch-and-shoot attempts this year and he’ll be behind on practice time. The some is true for Craig who only made 32.4 percent of his catch-and-shoot attempts this year.
Grant has a healthy 3-point percentage but, as Ben Pfeifer pointed out, it’s an extremely low volume and he still has a tendency to pass up open shots or attack even non-threatening closeouts by dribbling into trouble.
These are the wings opponents should feel comfortable doubling-off of to throw another body at Jokic, close down a lane to the basket for Murray or Will Barton or a tag cutter coming down the baseline.
The Nuggets aren’t going to be an easy out for everyone but they have some clear defensive weaknesses that can be exploited and some less-than-ideal tendencies they can be encouraged to lean into.