Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
The Miami Heat beat the Atlanta Hawks for the Southeast Division title by finishing with a 44-38 record to the Hawks 41-41. However, they have just one game to decide the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference. Miami hosts Game 1 of the Play-In Tournament with the winner advancing to face the Boston Celtics in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. The loser will play either Toronto or Chicago for the eighth seed.
The Heat went 3-1 against the Hawks this season, but this one is by far the most important. In the past few years, we’ve seen both Trae Young and Jimmy Butler carry their teams to the Eastern Conference Finals, but now they’re just fighting for a spot in the first round.
Here are the odds for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament.
Hawks vs. Heat odds, spread and total
Hawks vs. Heat prediction and pick
The Hawks rested Trae Young and Dejounte Murray in their final regular season game, a 120-114 loss to the Celtics. They’ll both be back in the lineup for this matchup and they’ll both be fighting to touch the ball. Quin Snyder has clearly been pushing this team to share the ball more since taking over, but it isn’t working and now there are many who expected Young to be traded this offseason. That’s how far this thing has fallen since the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals.
With Snyder taking over, the offense hasn’t suffered, in their last 15 games the Hawks are fifth in offensive rating, but they’re also 25th in defensive rating. Miami is built as a defensive team, but the Heat are 20th in defensive rating over that same stretch to close the regular season. The Heat did finish the year as the No. 2 team in opponent points per game, but that has more to do with their pace of play than their defensive prowess. They’re 22nd in opponent field goal percentage and opponent three point shooting.
Jimmy Butler and Trae Young both take their game to another level in the playoffs and they both do it by getting to the free-throw line. The Heat are 2nd in the NBA in free-throw percentage and the Hawks are 3rd. They’ll both get at least 10 free-throw attempts and that means points scored with the clock stopped. A great recipe for an over.
Pick: Over 226.5 (-110)
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change