It’s been a rough go for yours truly since the Christmas Day slate in the NBA, but that’s life betting on The Association.
There are going to be ups and downs, and we had a lot of ups early in the season so our record is still over .500.
With 11 games on the docket for Monday, Jan. 2, I have two player props and two moneyline picks for the action.
We’re starting early with a Julius Randle prop in the New York Knicks-Phoenix Suns game at 3 p.m. EST, and closing things out with a play in the Detroit Pistons-Portland Trail Blazers matchup at 10:10 p.m. EST.
A little something for the entire slate!
Here are Monday’s picks:
NBA best bets record to date:
NBA best bets today
- Julius Randle OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-135)
- Indiana Pacers ML (-120) vs. Toronto Raptors
- Philadelphia 76ers ML (-170) vs. New Orleans Pelicans
- Jalen Duren OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-130)
Julius Randle OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-135)
Julius Randle has been an absolute monster on the glass lately, taking on an even bigger role for the Knicks with Obi Toppin (leg) out of the lineup.
Randle is averaging 9.7 rebounds per game on the season, but he’s been even better over his last 10 games, posting 12.5 boards per matchup and clearing this line in nine of 10 games.
The Phoenix Suns aren’t a bad rebounding team, but they lack a little size at the power forward position to deal with a player as physical as Randle.
With RJ Barrett out and Jalen Brunson questionable, Randle could be in line for another huge workload for the Knicks. He’s played over 40 minutes in four of his last six games, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he sees a similar workload this afternoon.
Indiana Pacers ML (-120) vs. Toronto Raptors
This is a pretty simple handicap for me, as the Indiana Pacers are on fire at home, beating the Los Angeles Clippers, Cleveland Cavaliers and Atlanta Hawks on this homestand.
Now, they get a Toronto Raptors team that is just 3-7 in its last 10 games and a brutal 5-12 on the road this season.
Not only that, but Toronto is just 3-8 straight up as a road dog in the 2022-23 campaign despite covering the spread in seven of those games.
With Fred VanVleet listed as questionable for Toronto, I’m jumping on the Pacers early as short favorites at home.
Philadelphia 76ers ML (-170) vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Could I take the Philadelphia 76ers to cover the 4.5-point spread in this game? Sure.
But I’m in a bit of a slump, so why not go with the safer play and lay the juice for them to simply win this game.
Philly lost the first matchup between these two teams on Friday night, but the New Orleans Pelicans got huge games out of Zion Williamson (36 points) and C.J. McCollum (42 points).
As good as that duo is, the Sixers are also the No. 2 defense in the NBA, and I can’t see them putting on such a poor performance at home.
Philly is 9-5-1 against the spread as a home favorite this season, while the Pelicans are just 7-9 straight up on the road compared to 16-4 at home.
New Orleans lost to the Memphis Grizzlies by 15 on the road in its last game, and it won’t have Brandon Ingram for this matchup.
With Tyrese Maxey and James Harden healthy, I think the Sixers get revenge and split the season series.
Jalen Duren OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-130)
Jalen Duren is coming off a rough game where foul trouble limited him to just 13:31 of playing time, but the Pistons rookie big man has been a beast on the glass as of late.
Since moving into the starting lineup, Duren is averaging 11.4 rebounds per game in 12 games. That’s counting his 0-rebound game on New Year’s Eve!
Duren has cleared this total in eight of his 12 starts, and I also don’t mind his assists and rebounds props (OVER 10.5 at +100 at DraftKings) in this game. Duren has cleared that line in 10 of his 12 starts.
The Blazers are a solid rebounding team, but Duren is really taking advantage of an expanded role as of late. I’ll trust him to bounce back on Monday.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
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