Denver Nuggets fans were horrified when Jerami Grant left in free agency, claiming a significant step backward was inevitable. Let’s explore this.
After Jerami Grant ditched the Denver Nuggets in favor of the messy Detroit Pistons for an over-inflated $60 million contract, the Mile High fanbase went into full panic mode.
The vice of groupthink was tight over the ensuing days as the chatter grew loonier and loonier. Grant was suddenly the reason Denver reached the Western Conference Finals and was rapidly ascending to an all-franchise forward … instead of simply serving as a decent defender against a very specific archetype and an average scorer when supported by the best passing big man in NBA history.
While Grant’s defense against Kawhi Leonard was spectacular in two of seven postseason matchups, and Denver would’ve preferred to keep him, he’ll be better remembered as the most overrated player in the Mike Malone era.
Let’s examine the groupthink myths surrounding Jerami Grant’s perceived impact compared to his actual effect on this Nuggets team.
“Jerami Grant was an exceptional defender, the best on the Nuggets.”
Jerami Grant was a decent defender … but an amazing one, the team’s best?
This theory was proven false in the playoffs, starting with Donovan Mitchell (a strong scorer, but by no means an established superstar yet), who averaged a downright embarrassing 36.3 points per contest as the Utah Jazz nearly dropped the Nuggets in the first round.
As Mitchell dominated primary defender Torrey Craig in an uncomfortable fashion, Grant took a crack at him in an effort to stop the bleeding. Yet, as the team’s “best defender,” Grant couldn’t faze Mitchell in the slightest. Mitchell finished the series shooting a video game-like 51.5 percent from 3-point range on 9.1 attempts per contest.
It was only when Gary Harris returned from injury that Denver made life rough for Mitchell, finally limiting him to 22 points and 2-of-8 shooting from deep in a decisive Game 7.
Covering the quick, hot-shooting guard wasn’t Grant’s cup of tea, which is understandable seeing as how Grant stands 6-foot-9. But how about the bigger, slower 35-year-old LeBron James?
The quickness factor was better matched when Grant faced LeBron, but Grant was unable to stay with him physically. LeBron allowed Anthony Davis to be the Lakers’ primary offensive option, yet still averaged 27.0 points and 9.0 assists per contest on 52.9 percent shooing, utilizing a significant strength advantage.
LeBron strolled wherever he wished, delivered in the clutch multiple times, and handily beat the Nuggets in a short, decisive Western Conference Finals. Once again, Grant was outmatched and unable to contain him, as James was the wrong archetype. LeBron was simply too strong, as he is against many defenders, but nonetheless, he proved that Grant isn’t as special as he’s made out to be.
So who can this “defensive stopper” actually stop? Kawhi Leonard was penciled in as the ideal matchup, as he doesn’t boast LeBron’s brute strength, favors the mid-range game and possesses average quickness. And to his credit, Grant did a decent job on Kawhi, as Denver’s semifinals win was partially a product of Leonard failing to dominate.
However, Kawhi still averaged a steady 24.3 points per game in the series, topping 23 points in five of the seven contests. He reached 29 points three times and shot 50 percent or better in multiple games, showing Grant could never completely stop him, despite some level of effectiveness.
Meanwhile, for the second straight series, Gary Harris was the true defensive hero, holding superstar Paul George to 21.7 points per contest on 43.1 percent shooting, including two games in which George managed just 10 points. While Grant did well in managing Leonard, Harris bottled up George to a significant degree, opening the floodgates for the “Playoff P” narrative.
To wrap up this myth, Jerami Grant was never Denver’s best defender; Gary Harris has that distinction on lock. Grant’s stopping efforts are best described as solid but certainly not stellar or irreplaceable. While Harris was Denver’s top stopper, Grant was a complementary defender against a very specific archetype — a group that turned out to be surprisingly narrow.
“Jerami Grant would’ve been Denver’s third-best offensive player this season and his departure leaves a gaping hole in the offense”
Denver struggled with poor offense surrounding Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray last postseason, as no one consistently knocked down shots or otherwise proved to be a reliable scorer.
Grant, who many believed to be a key offensive option, left much to be desired in the postseason, shooting just 40.6 percent from the field and 32.6 percent from deep. He surpassed 20 points only once in Denver’s 19 postseason games and shot a putrid 31.2 percent in the Western Conference semifinals. Jokic and Murray were on an island offensively, with or without Grant on the court.
From Denver’s perspective, it’s incorrect to classify Grant as a potential third scorer, as the offense was better boosted by Will Barton and Michael Porter Jr.
Barton’s shooting, slashing and playmaking off the bounce benefitted the Nuggets in multiple facets with the starters and second unit alike. He started all 58 games for the Nuggets, averaging 15.1 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.7 assists per contest, but also staggered frequently with the bench as a lead offensive weapon during these stretches. It’s unfortunate he was injured last postseason, as he would have gracefully filled Denver’s third-scorer role.
Porter is a tantalizing offensive player on the cliff’s edge of a star breakout. He averaged 22.0 points per game on 55.1 percent shooting in the Orlando bubble, confirming he’ll be a dangerous scorer sooner rather than later. And while his defense and inexperience limited his postseason minutes, Porter showed the ability to positively impact the offense, averaging 11.4 points per contest on 38.2 percent 3-point shooting. This impact is projected to grow exponentially by next postseason.
Meanwhile, from Grant’s end, the Detroit signing is puzzling, as he’s proven himself a low-octane scoring threat outside of hand-delivered opportunities. Playing around Jokic was a good fit, as he created many open 3-pointers and dunks for Grant, accounting for a significant number of his points.
However, when left to create for himself, Grant often struggled to score. His handle is weak and he shot a horrid 30.8 percent between 16 feet and the 3-point arc, which is frequent mid-range pull-up territory for isolation scorers.
Therefore, it feels highly unlikely Grant’s skill-set will render him a featured scorer in Detroit, the role he believes he’ll fill according to multiple sources. He was little more than a finishing option for Denver, as he required a table-setter to facilitate his scoring.
“Jerami Grant made the Nuggets significantly better and they are no longer championship contenders without him”
Grant did a few things well in Denver, as his aforementioned on-ball defense (against certain archetypes) and deep shooting were strengths. Outside of those areas, he was actually a poor fit.
He finished the season with a minus-1.2 net rating, which was second-worst among rotation players. Meanwhile, Paul Millsap, who split power forward minutes with Grant, actually led the team with a plus-4.4 net rating, proving himself a better complementary player with the starters and bench unit alike.
The playoffs were worse, as Grant posted a minus-3.8 net rating in the postseason. To make matters more dire, Grant started 16 of 19 postseason games, meaning he played primarily with Jokic and Murray, yet the Nuggets were still outscored when on the floor. It’s hard to post a negative net rating when playing with such a spectacular superstar tandem.
Net rating doesn’t tell the whole story, but it does provide context, as this stat demonstrates how Grant’s overall game didn’t mesh with Denver’s core. Was it the lack of rebounding (3.5 boards per game), underwhelming rim protection (0.8 blocks per contest) or simply poor chemistry? The likeliest answer involves a combination of these factors.
Nonetheless, Grant simply didn’t contribute to the Nuggets playing their best basketball.
The future has always sat in the hands of Jokic, Murray and Porter, as Grant was simply a role player. Now it’s onwards and upwards with this maturing Nuggets core, which will be supported by solid forwards like Paul Millsap, JaMychal Green and Bol Bol.