The Nuggets and Heat play a pivotal Game 4 on Friday night as Denver looks to head home with a commanding 3-1 series lead.
While we broke down our favorite bet on the 2023 NBA Finals Game 4, this article is going to key in on three prop bets we are eyeing. The Nuggets got epic contributions from its stars Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, but I’m counting on role players like Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to contribute. I also have my eye on an undervalued Max Strus player prop ahead of Game 4.
Let’s waste no time and get to the prop bets:
Best NBA prop bets for Nuggets vs. Heat Game 4
- Aaron Gordon OVER 18.5 Points and Rebounds (-117)
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope OVER 1.5 Three’s (+110)
- Max Strus OVER 2.5 Assists (+110)
Aaron Gordon OVER 18.5 Points and Rebounds
Gordon has cleared this mark in two of three games and in the one game he didn’t, he got to 21 PRA. This is right in the ballpark for the Nuggets’ forward and I like the usage for him moving forward in this series as Denver looks to pound the ball inside.
Gordon has taken at least seven shots in all three games, and considering most shots come right at the rim he is shooting 63% from the field. Further, he’s invaluable on the floor, playing 36 minutes per game in the Finals and as the rotations shrink, I expect him to keep cleaning the glass at a high level. He has generated 12 rebound chances per game this series, per NBA.com, and with the Heat focused on trying to slow down Murray and Jokic, I envision Gordon filling the stat sheet once again.
Kentavious Cladwell-Pope OVER 1.5 Three’s
Pope has only gotten up three shots from beyond the arc in each game this series and hasn’t made more than one in any of them, but I think this is a prime spot to grab the wing at + money.
For starters, he is a 39% shoot from beyond the arc this postseason while hitting just shy of two per game. He is more than capable of getting two, but I believe that this game script will lend itself to a higher volume.
The Nuggets have dominated in the paint so far this series and the Heat need to find a counter. Denver only took 18 three’s in the Game 3 win and Miami will now turn to focusing on forcing the ball out of Murray and Jokic’s hands while sending more defenders at them. While it’s easier said than done, that will be the adjustment from Erik Spoelstra, thus opening up more shots for the likes of KCP.
At + money, I’ll bank on more volume and some natural regression to efficiency.
Max Strus OVER 2.5 Assists (+110)
Strus has gone over this mark in all three games this series, totaling 14 dimes. As the Nuggets put the clamps on Miami’s shooters, this has led to Strus needing to dribble past closeouts and make the extra pass to a shooter.
This is simply a numbers play on someone that is starting and playing in the mid-to-high 20’s all series. It’s a low mark, and the defensive game plan from the Nuggets lends itself to this going over as well.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.