The Los Angeles Lakers are searching for their first win in the Western Conference Finals on Saturday night, but luckily they’re at home where they are undefeated in the 2023 postseason.
If you’re looking to bet on this game, you’ve come to the right spot, because I have a play for just about everyone tonight, including a prop for a Denver Nuggets guard, a Lakers guard and a pick on the spread.
Let’s break it all down:
NBA best bets record to date
NBA best bets today
- Jamal Murray OVER 24.5 Points (-115)
- D’Angelo Russell UNDER 13.5 Points (-125)
- Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 (-110) vs. Denver Nuggets
Jamal Murray OVER 24.5 Points (-115)
Jamal Murray has scored 26 or more points in five of his last six playoff games, including two huge games against the Lakers, scoring 31 and 37 points in the first two games of the series.
The volume for Murray has been pretty crazy, as he’s averaging 20.9 field goal attempts per game in the playoffs while playing over 38 minutes per night.
I don’t see that changing in Game 3, especially since Denver has a chance to put a stranglehold on the series with a win. Jamal has been too hot to fade him at this number.
D’Angelo Russell UNDER 13.5 Points (-125)
The Lakers have struggled mightily with Russell on the floor in this series, ging minus-41 in his 59 minutes while playing +30 ball when he sits.
That’s a massive gap.
If Darvin Ham truly wants to win this series, he’s going to need to play Dennis Schroder, Rui Hachimura and others over Russell, leading me to taking the UNDER on the guard’s points in Game 3.
Russell is just 7-for-19 from the field in this series, scoring eight and 10 points in his two games.
This number is too high for a player who may see less minutes in Game 3 than he has all series.
Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 (-110) vs. Denver Nuggets
Despite those two prop picks, I do think the Lakers win and cover in this game. Los Angeles hung around in Games 1 and 2 despite playing one of the best home teams in the NBA, and there are a couple of key reasons why it should cover at home.
First off, the Lakers are a perfect 7-0 at home in the postseason, and they’ve won each game pretty easily outside of Game 4 against the Golden State Warriors. That’s the only home game this postseason that the Lakers wouldn’t have covered this number.
Also, Denver’s defense took a major step back on the road this season compared to at home (No. 6 at home, No. 21 on the road).
If that happens in the postseason, the Nuggets could be in trouble, especially with Anthony Davis (4-for-15 in Game 2) due for a better shooting night.
Back the Lakers to make this a series on Saturday night.
—
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.