Don’t look now, but the Miami Heat stole yet another Game 1.
Miami rallied with a 46-point third quarter to beat the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, the team’s third straight road win in Game 1 in these playoffs.
Coming into the series with Boston, Miami was +400 to upset Boston, with ESPN analytics giving the Heat just a three percent chance to advance to the NBA Finals.
Yet, Miami now is just three wins away from the NBA Finals and the Celtics have done a poor job of protecting home court in these playoffs, going just 4-4.
Does Miami have value in the latest series odds?
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics series odds after Game 1
Despite winning Game 1, the Heat are still +170 to win this series, an implied probability of just 37.04 percent.
It’s a disrespectful line, especially when you consider the fact that Miami has followed a similar blueprint in the first two rounds of the playoffs.
The Heat are a perfect 5-0 at home in the playoffs, and now they could win this series by just protecting home court in Games 3, 4 and 6.
Bettors can’t assume that will happen, but Miami continues to be treated in the market like it is a No. 8 seed, when the team has shown it is much more than that.
There’s a reason Miami is back in this spot, and it’s a combination of elite coaching, a top-notch start (Jimmy Butler) and role players who have been in this spot before. This is the third time in four seasons Miami has reached the Eastern Conference Finals. This team isn’t afraid of the moment.
Boston has played with its food all postseason, allowing the Atlanta Hawks to take it to six games and the Philadelphia 76ers to take it to seven games.
After Miami upset the Milwaukee Bucks, it should have gained more respect in the futures market. Oddsmakers still refuse to do so, and it’s leaving us value if we bet on the Heat.
At +170, Miami is an incredible value to advance to the NBA Finals, especially given how well the team has played this postseason.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.