The Nuggets held off a furious Lakers rally in the fourth quarter to take a 1-0 series lead in the Western Conference Finals.
Both teams shot about 54% from the field in Game 1 leading to an astronomically high scoring matchup that featured 258 points. How will both teams alter its defensive matchups to try and slow down the other team? Which team has the edge moving forward?
Let’s answer those questions below with our best bet on Game 2:
Nuggets vs. Lakers odds, spread and total
Nuggets vs. Lakers prediction and pick
We saw a massive adjustment in the second half of Game 1 from the Lakers as they tried to slow down Nikola Jokic, who finished with an absurd stat line of 34 points, 21 rebounds and 14 assists. The team opted to put Rui Hachimura on Jokic and put Anthony Davis on Aaron Gordon, who is less of a threat to score, which worked to great success.
Denver will have time to assess the matchups and make adjustments, such as having Gordon be the primary ball handler to enter the ball into Jokic, neutralizing Davis’ rim protection, but I do believe that we see the offenses slow down quite a bit after a torrid opening game.
The pace wasn’t so fast in Game 1, just 97.5, which would have checked in 27th in the NBA across the whole season. So all we need is some normal shooting from both teams.
Factor in that the Lakers are going to be playing at altitude on only one day of rest, and I expect Los Angeles to try and slow this game down to a halfcourt battle and make Jokic try to beat a set defense instead of getting into an up-and-down matchup.
Denver has the offense to beat Los Angeles in a standard game, LA needs to find defensive answers to knock off the Nuggets on the road, which starts with the team slowing the tempo.
After closing at 222, this total is up five points, which feels like a massive overreaction given the Game 1 shot making.
I’m not going to jump to conclusions and will count on both defenses to step it up and lead to an under game after the total was artificially inflated.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.