The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics face off for the third time in four seasons in the Eastern Conference Finals, but Boston is a massive favorite (-525) to win the series.
That’s led to the Celtics and Jayson Tatum being favored by 8.5 points in Game 1, but is that too many points against a Miami team that has shocked the Milwaukee Bucks and handled the New York Knicks this postseason?
Boston needed seven games to beat the Philadelphia 76ers, but the team has been the NBA Finals favorite for the majority of this season.
Here’s the latest odds and how I am betting Game 1 of this series:
Heat vs. Celtics odds, spread and total
Heat vs. Celtics prediction and pick
Boston is the better team in this matchup, but I’m not sold on the Celtics covering this large spread at home, where they have actually struggled in the postseason lately.
The Heat, despite not having Tyler Herro, are 8-3 against the spread in the playoffs, and 9-4 ATS going back to the play-in tournament. Erik Spoelstra seems to be pushing all of the right buttons at this point in the season.
Spoelstra has the coaching advantage over Boston’s first-year head coach Joe Mazzulla, and I think that’s going to be key for Miami hanging around in this series.
As good as Tatum was in Game 7 against Philly, I think Butler is the best player in this series, especially with how he has dominated the postseason.
Boston may end up winning Game 1, but this line, and the series line as a matter of fact, is disrespectful towards the Heat.
—
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.