The Conference Finals matchups are set and we’re trying to answer the biggest questions for the five biggest stars still in the NBA Playoffs.
After one of the most chaotic playoffs we’ve seen in recent memory, we’re down to a final four, and if these matchups look familiar it’s because they are. The Los Angeles Lakers, Denver Nuggets, Miami Heat and Boston Celtics all played in the 2020 Conference Finals. Now, three years later, here they are again. The NBA’s biggest stars will face off for a chance to play in the Finals. Here are the five biggest questions facing the five biggest stars in these conference finals.
LeBron James: How much does LeBron have left in the tank?
After a marathon series in which the Lakers played every other day, it’s fair to wonder how LeBron will hold up against the Nuggets. At 38 years old, he’s playing on a bad foot but did get three days of rest before having to travel to the high altitude of Denver.
LeBron (37.4 minutes per game) is averaging the sixth-most minutes of active players in these playoffs. At times, LeBron has looked passive, willingly ceding offensive responsibility to Davis, Austin Reaves and D’Angelo Russell. He has scored 30 points just once — in the Lakers’ close-out game against the Warriors.
The Nuggets are deeper than Golden State, but not by much. The Nuggets are depending mostly on seven or eight guys on any given night. If LeBron can muster the stamina to pressure the paint consistently, he could wear on Denver’s defense in a way that Devin Booker and Kevin Durant — happier to pull up from midrange — did not.
Anthony Davis: Can Davis limit Nikola Jokic? Will Davis even guard him?
Will the Lakers decide to have Davis check Nikola Jokic and try to limit the two-time MVP’s scoring, or opt for a different matchup and have Davis hang by the rim and vaporize opportunities in the paint?
How the Lakers deployed Davis — the best defender in these playoffs — against the Warriors was among the most important variables in that series. The Lakers at first had Davis play off a non-shooting threat and take the paint away from Golden State’s offense. Later, the Lakers started switching on defense, which left Davis matched up with Stephen Curry in pick-and-roll coverage away from the basket.
Davis is versatile enough to do both. The Nuggets are a different sort of offense, though. Jokic is an unsolvable puzzle, big enough to take Davis into the post and shoot over him, enough touch to pull Davis away from the rim and find teammates cutting behind Denver’s defense. There is no taking everything away from a superstar, but you can try to take something away. What the Lakers try to take away from Jokic on a nightly basis, and how Jokic responds, will be fascinating to watch.
Nikola Jokic: Will Jokic be good enough on defense?
Credit where it’s due: Against the Suns, Jokic was not a negative — dare I say even a positive — on defense.
Jokic was excellent at toggling between touching at the level of the screen and hanging back in drop coverage. It’s a team effort by the Nuggets (who have an impressive 110.1 defensive rating in these playoffs), but this is also not the Jokic of old, who was often thwarted in the playoffs by being dragged into pick-and-rolls.
But LeBron and AD will test him. The Lakers’ offense is a cascade of pick-and-rolls between different partners, each of them with their own nuances and cadences. Jokic will be in the middle of every one of them. LeBron and Davis will try to put him into foul trouble. If it gets out of hand, the Nuggets could have Jokic guard someone like Jarred Vanderbilt or Dennis Schroder, but the Lakers have enough shooting to make sure there’s never an easy place for Jokic to hide. In this series’ most high-stakes moments, LeBron and Davis will be going at Jokic, and it’ll be up to Jokic to hold up.
Jimmy Butler: Can Butler again be the best player in the series?
Few superstars rise to the moment like Butler. Last year, Butler was sensational against the Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals. His 47-point masterpiece in the Garden in Game 6 sent the series back to Miami, where he played all 48 minutes and scored 35 points to push the Celtics to the brink. Butler was a couple of inches away from it being 38 points and advancing to the Finals. When Butler is in that zone, he strikes fear in his opponents.
But Butler hasn’t scored 30 points since the first round of the playoffs when he vaporized the Bucks and sent the franchise into tumult. Since then, he sprained his right ankle in Game 1 against the Knicks, then spent that series facilitating out of double-teams. After averaging 37.6 points on 59.7 percent shooting against the Bucks, Butler was held to 24.6 points on 43.2 percent shooting against the Knicks. He didn’t look himself in the last few games and was limping in the locker room after Miami’s close-out Game 6.
Butler will have had four full days for his ankle to heal. Against a deep Celtics team with homecourt advantage, the Heat need Butler to be the best player in the series to have a chance.
Jayson Tatum: Is Tatum ready to make the leap?
It’s been an uneven postseason for Tatum, who has had games of seven points on 14 percent shooting, games of 51 points on 60 percent shooting, and everything in between. Tatum’s Game 6 against the Sixers, in which he had three points in three quarters before erupting for 16 points in the fourth quarter to stave off elimination, may have been the perfect encapsulation of his run.
Tatum has a tendency to float through possessions and settle for finesse jumpers. Those instances will be wins for a Heat team that will be challenged to score with Boston’s offense. Against a Heat team whose ethos begins with smelling blood in the water, the Celtics can’t afford many Tatum no-shows. He’s the most talented player in this matchup and has a chance to gain entry into the innermost circle of superstars with a big series and second straight Finals appearance.
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