We’re used to superhuman postseason performances from LeBron James. But this year, he’s looked decidedly and convincingly human.
LeBron James is typically at his best when the stakes are highest. He regularly raises his game in the playoffs and has a 40-13 career record in postseason closeout games, averaging 28.3 points, 9.2 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.0 blocks. But last night, with an opportunity to finish off the Warriors and perhaps end their dynasty, LeBron was comparatively quiet.
In a 121-106 loss, he put up 25 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists, attempting just 17 shots — one less than Anthony Davis. In situations where he has, historically, assumed primacy and dominance, he seemed to be going with the flow. It’s a trend we’ve seen emerge throughout these playoffs, as he’s averaging career-postseason-lows in points and steals per game, the second-fewest assists per game of his postseason career and shooting just 24.7 percent from beyond the arc. By nearly every measure, this has been one of the worst postseason efforts of LeBron’s career (bearing in mind that “worst for LeBron” is still pretty damn good for essentially anyone else).
The graph below charts every postseason game of LeBron’s career by minutes played and Game Score, a box-score-based, single-game metric of player impact.
His 2022-23 efforts clearly have clearly been below the average standards of performance he’s established for himself. For this 277-game postseason career, his median Game Score is 23.1, a mark he’s cleared, just barely, three times this playoffs. Over his career, he’s recorded a Game Score of 20 or less 88 times. Eight of them have come this year.
LeBron James is doing less than he ever has in the postseason
Now, Game Score is not a perfect measure of impact, it’s more a measure of conventional productivity. And the trend we’re seeing this year is not just LeBron being less impactful, it’s him just doing less overall. Over the course of his postseason career, he’s posted a usage rate of 31.9 percent and an assist rate of 35.1 percent. So far this season, he’s at 27.0 and 21.8, respectively and if we separate those averages out by season you can see just how far off his norm he is.
There is a bit more spread between his two different stints in Cleveland but there are neat clusters reflecting how his roles evolved earlier in this career with the Heat and then later with the Lakers. But this season doesn’t fit anywhere in with any previous patterns. And just to be clear, this is a postseason trend, not a full-season one. His regular-season assist and usage percentages were actually slightly higher than the previous season and significantly higher than what he’s done in these 11 games.
The most significant data point here for the Lakers though is that they have a 3-2 series lead over the Warriors in the Western Conference Semifinals. They have already eliminated one contender and have two chances, including one at home, to eliminate another. They are within sight of the NBA Finals and they’ve done it with LeBron James producing like DeMar DeRozan.
I wouldn’t bet against the chances of LeBron summoning a 40-10 or triple-double when the Lakers need it, but what matters most is that they haven’t. Anthony Davis has anchored their exceptional defense and the supporting cast has been good enough that they haven’t needed LeBron James to be LeBron James. That’s a terrifying reality for the Warriors, Nuggets, Suns and whoever might come out of the Eastern Conference.
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The answer for last issue’s trivia question:
Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson have started a combined 384 postseason games for the Warriors since the 2014-15 season. Eight other players have started at least 10 postseason games for the Warriors over the same span — Kevin Durant, Andrew Bogut, Harrison Barnes, Andre Iguodala, Andrew Wiggins, Kevon Looney, Zaza Pachulia, JaVale McGee.