The Western Conference semifinals get underway on Saturday night, with the No. 1-seeded Denver Nuggets hosting the N. 4-seeded Phoenix Suns.
Denver and Phoenix are two of the favorites in the West, but the Suns are favored to win this series despite being the lower seed. Phoenix took care of business in the first round against a shorthanded Los Angeles Clippers team, but this is a whole different animal with Denver.
I have two picks for this contest, including one side and a player prop that I love for Nuggets guard Jamal Murray.
Let’s break them down:
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- Denver Nuggets ML (-150) vs. Phoenix Suns
- Jamal Murray OVER 22.5 Points (-135)
Denver Nuggets ML (-150) vs. Phoenix Suns
I think Denver is in a great spot to take Game 1, and I eventually think the Nuggets will win this series.
The public is all over the Suns in this game, but Denver has been elite at home (34-7 in the regular season, 3-0 in the playoffs) all season. Phoenix also lacks the depth to compete with Denver at full strength, no matter how good Kevin Durant and Devin Booker play.
Against the Clippers, Phoenix essentially went with a seven-man rotation, and the team had to play KD, Booker and Chris Paul big minutes despite the Clippers missing Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.
Denver is one of the best teams in the NBA, ranking fifth in the league in offensive rating in the regular season and posting a top-10 defensive rating when at home.
The Suns have a ton of talent, but they lack chemistry, depth and size beyond Deandre Ayton to deal with Nikola Jokic.
The Nuggets continue their dominance at Ball Arena tonight.
Jamal Murray OVER 22.5 Points (-135)
Jamal Murray has been one of my favorite players to bet on in the prop market, as he’s delivered in a big way for Denver this postseason.
Murray is averaging 27.2 points per game while shooting 47.1 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from 3 in the postseason, clearing 22.5 points in three of his five games against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round.
The Suns have a bit of a dilemma in guarding Murray, as they’ll likely start either Devin Booker or Torrey Craig on him in Game 1.
I think both are a favorable matchup for the Nuggets guard, who has seen a ton of volume in the postseason, taking 20.8 shots per game (including four games with 21 or more shots).
There’s value on Murray with his points prop all the way down at 22.5.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.