The prop market in the New York Knicks-Miami Heat Game 1 matchup could be influenced massively by Julius Randle’s status (ankle), but it looks like he’s going to play with books posting props for him after he was listed as questionable.
With that in mind, I have three plays I like for Sunday’s matinee, including a bet for Randle himself.
Knicks vs. Heat best NBA prop bets
- Jimmy Butler OVER 30.5 Points
- Mitchell Robinson OVER 9.5 Rebounds
- Julius Randle UNDER 19.5 Points
Jimmy Butler OVER 30.5 Points
It’s hard to play much better than Jimmy Butler did in the first round against the Bucks, but I do think he’s going to have crazy usage again with Tyler Herro out of the lineup.
In the first round, Butler averaged 37.6 points per game on terrific efficiency (59.7 percent from the field, 44.4 percent from 3), but he also saw a ton of volume.
Butler attempted 23.8 shots and 9.6 free throws per game, a massive base for him to clear this prop. Even though he averaged just 11 points per game in his two games at MSG this season, I can’t fade playoff Butler in Game 1.
Mitchell Robinson OVER 9.5 Rebounds
With Randle looking like a go for Game 1, Mitchell Robinson has a chance to completely change this game.
The Heat used Bam Adebayo on Randle in the regular season, which likely means Kevin Love will be tasked with keeping Robinson off the glass, something that is not for the faint of heart.
Robinson dominated Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen in the first round, and while Love is a veteran, he isn’t nearly the same player he used to be on the glass. Robinson had 11 offensive boards alone in Game 5 against Cleveland, so asking him to get double-digits in Game 1 doesn’t see like too big of a stretch.
Julius Randle UNDER 19.5 Points
If Randle plays, the Knicks are going to be in a good spot, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he doesn’t play his normal minutes.
Randle played much less than normal in Games 1 and 2 against Cleveland in his return from his original ankle injury, and Obi Toppin has played well enough this postseason for Tom Thibodeau to trust him in this game.
Also, Randle has struggled with his shot, scoring over 19.5 points just once in the 2023 postseason. I’ll fade him here fresh off an injury, especially since he has to deal with an elite defender like Adebayo.
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