The Golden State Warriors are in a must-win scenario in Game 3 of the first round against the Sacramento Kings, but they won’t have one key player on Thursday.
Forward Draymond Green has been suspended for Game 3 after stomping on the sternum of Kings forward Domantas Sabonis. As a result, he was tossed from Game 2, and Sabonis is now questionable with a sternum injury for Game 3.
The Kings lead the series 2-0, but they may have a tough time at Chase Center, where the Warriors have gone 33-8 so far this season. Still, Green’s suspension looms large for a Golden State team that was already thin in the frontcourt as it is.
Let’s break down the odds and my best bet for this Game 3 matchup:
Kings vs. Warriors odds, spread and total
Kings vs. Warriors prediction and pick
The Warriors have moved from 7.5-point to 5.5-point favorites with Green suspended, but I’m not sure laying the points with Golden State is the best way to attack this game.
The team is just 3-6 without Green this season, and the Warriors’ defensive rating goes from 110.1 points per 100 possessions with Green on the floor to to 129.4 points per 100 possessions when he’s off the floor in this series.
I can’t see the Warriors falling behind 3-0, but laying the price on the moneyline doesn’t seem like the best bet to make. Instead, I have my eyes on the total.
The Warriors defense, as evidenced above, takes a massive hit when Green sits this season, but these two teams are much better UNDER teams when set in this spot.
As road underdogs this season, the Kings are the best UNDER team in the NBA, going 15-5 this season. Golden State is 18-16-2 on UNDERs when favored at home this season.
While Golden State won’t have Green, the team does take a major leap as a defense at home, ranking third in the league in defensive rating. The Kings are shockingly eighth in the league in defensive rating on the road.
Game 1 was a high-scoring affair, but these teams combined for just 220 points in Game 2. I’ll lean with the UNDER here given how these teams have played so far this season.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.