The Oklahoma City Thunder picked up an impressive win on Wednesday night in the league’s play-in tournament, upsetting the New Orleans Pelicans as 5.5-point underdogs.
Now, the Thunder are on the road again, looking to become the first No. 10 seed to advance into the postseason through the play-in against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Minnesota squandered a big second half lead to lose to the Los Angeles Lakers in the No. 7 vs. No. 8 game, and the team needs more from Anthony Edwards (3-for-17, 0-for-9 from 3 vs. L.A.) if it wants any chance at advancing to the postseason.
Rudy Gobert (suspension) is expected to return for the Wolves, but their primary defender for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaden McDaniels, is out with a broken hand.
Still, oddsmakers think the Wolves should win this game. How should we bet it?
Thunder vs. Timberwolves odds, spread and total
Thunder vs. Timberwolves prediction and pick
Two key betting trends suggest that bettors should be all over the Thunder to cover in this spot.
After covering as 5.5-point road underdogs on Wednesday night, OKC is now 20-11-3 against the spread as a road dog this season, one of the best marks in the NBA.
Meanwhile, Minnesota is just 8-17 against the spread as a home favorite, the third worst mark in the NBA. Only the Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks were worse as home favorites this season.
Even with Gobert back, I’m not sure that fixes the biggest issue that Minnesota is going to have: wing defense.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Josh Giddey and Lu Dort all played terrific basketball against the Pelicans, with Giddey and SGA both scoring over 30 points.
With McDaniels out, the team is going to rely on Edwards and Taurean Prince for wing defense.
Gobert may keep the Thunder out of the paint at times, but OKC may also go small to try and play him off the floor.
I think the Thunder cover in this game and are live to pull off the upset.
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