It’s a prop night for today’s NBA best bets column, as injuries have ravaged several matchups, and I refuse to rely on some of these tanking teams to cover massive spreads this late in the season.
So, we rely on players to get it done, and after a 2-1 night last night, I’m hoping to keep the momentum going.
I’ll also be in attendance for tonight’s New York Knicks-Miami Heat game, and the Knicks are 3-0 when I have been at Madison Square Garden this season. Do with that information what you will.
Five picks, four props and one total for the action on Wednesday night. Let’s ride:
NBA best bets record to date
NBA best bets today
- Kevin Durant OVER 32.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125)
- Jimmy Butler OVER 23.5 Points (-130)
- Mitchell Robinson OVER 8.5 Rebounds (+100)
- New York Knicks-Miami Heat OVER 223 (-110)
- Kyrie Irving OVER 4.5 Assists (-165)
Kevin Durant OVER 32.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125)
Kevin Durant is back on Wednesday night against the Minnesota Timberwolves, and since he’s coming off an injury we are getting a little bit of a discount on his PRA prop.
In his three games with the Phoenix Suns, Durant has posted PRA numbers of 31, 35 and 47.
Usually, oddsmakers are going to have Durant’s PRA number set closer to 40 since he averages 29.5 points, 6.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game on the season.
While there’s a chance KD is on a minutes limit, like he was in his first matchup with the team earlier this season, he still finished with 31 PRA in that game.
I’ll take a chance on KD having a big game in front of the home crowd in Phoenix.
Jimmy Butler OVER 23.5 Points (-130)
Jimmy Butler is listed as probable against the New York Knicks on Wednesday after missing last night’s game against the Toronto Raptors.
So far this season, Butler has dominated the Knicks scoring 33 and 35 points in his last two matchups against them. He’s also cleared 23.5 points in nine of his last 12 games.
Over this 12-game stretch, Butler is averaging 26.9 points per game while shooting 56.6 percent from the field and 47.4 percent from beyond the arc.
With his uncanny ability to get to the line as well, Butler is a great bet to clear this points prop on Wednesday.
Mitchell Robinson OVER 8.5 Rebounds (+100)
I’m buying low on Mitchell Robinson here, even though he has failed to clear this lineup in his last two games against Miami.
The Heat are an objectively poor offense, ranking 25th in the league in offensive rating and 25th in effective field goal percentage. That means there should be plenty of misses for Robinson and the Knicks to clear up on the glass.
Miami is also a below average rebounding team, ranking 20th in the league in rebounding percentage. That’s great for Robinson, who is one of the best offensive rebounders in the NBA.
Over his last 15 games, Robinson has cleared this number nine times, and he’s averaging just over nine boards per game on the season. I’ll take a shot on him at even money here.
New York Knicks-Miami Heat OVER 223 (-110)
The total in this game is on the rise since I bet it earlier this morning since Butler has been listed as probable.
With Butler and Jalen Brunson (questionable) expected to be in the lineup, this game could be extremely high scoring.
There have been two games where Butler and Brunson faced off this season, with the Knicks and Heat combining for 242 and 247 points in those games.
These teams both play at a slow pace, but the Knicks have been very efficient, ranking fifth in the NBA in offensive rating this season. Miami’s offense is not great, but Butler makes up for a lot of the team’s deficiencies by getting to the line at a high rate.
New York’s offensive rating is nearly four points better per 100 possessions when Brunson plays, and the team has cleared 223 points in five of its last six games. Even at 224.5, the OVER is the play.
Kyrie Irving OVER 4.5 Assists (-165)
We’re going to have to lay some juice with this Kyrie Irving prop, but it’s worth it since he’s cleared it at such a high rate in Dallas.
Irving has consistently been going over this number since being traded to Dallas, clearing 4.5 assists in 13 of his 16 games with the team. He’s averaging 5.9 assists per game over that stretch.
Even against a tough Philadelphia defense, Irving is going to have the ball in his hands a ton, which should give him plenty of chances to come away with five dimes on Wednesday.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.