It’s Valentine’s Day (for all who celebrate) and there’s nothing I’d love more than to give the community four winning NBA bets.
So, why not do it?
I have a pair of player props and a pair of spread bets on Tuesday, and I love the lines we’re getting on both scoring props.
After a 2-1 day on Monday, let’s keep the momentum going on the holiday:
NBA best bets record to date
NBA best bets today
- Derrick White OVER 19.5 Points (-110)
- Phoenix Suns -2.5 (-110) vs. Sacramento Kings
- Orlando Magic +7 (-110) vs. Toronto Raptors
- Kawhi Leonard OVER 22.5 Points (-110)
Derrick White OVER 19.5 Points (-110)
Boston Celtics guard Derrick White is playing some of the best basketball of his career (with Boston), winning the Eastern Conference Player of the Week this past week.
The Celtics guard has cleared 19.5 points in three of his last five games, finishing with exactly 19 in the other two matchups.
He’s going to have a massive role on Tuesday night as the Celtics don’t have Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown or Marcus Smart available on Tuesday night against the Milwaukee Bucks.
I think there is some value on this prop at just 19.5. White is averaging 15.3 shots per game, including a 20-shot game in his last outing. He’s going to see similar volume with so many players out tonight. I’ll go OVER.
Phoenix Suns -2.5 (-110) vs. Sacramento Kings
The Phoenix Suns won’t have Kevin Durant in the lineup tonight against the Sacramento Kings, but they will have Devin Booker, which gives them a huge advantage.
The Suns are 20-11 with Booker in the lineup this season and 11-16 without him, and they’ve been a far better team at home.
The Suns are 13-9 against the spread as home favorites, winning those games by an average margin of 6.8 points per game. Meanwhile, the Kings are 8-6 against the spread as road dogs.
Sacramento is just 22nd in net rating over its last 10 matchups, so I’ll ride with the Suns at home here.
Orlando Magic +7 (-110) vs. Toronto Raptors
Can we start putting some respect on the Orlando Magic?
Paolo Banchero and company are 19-14 since starting the season 5-20, and they picked up a road upset of the Chicago Bulls on Monday night.
Don’t sleep on the Magic as dogs against the Toronto Raptors on the second night of a back-to-back. Orlando is 5-5 ATS on the second leg of back-to-backs this season and 16-11-1 ATS as road dogs.
Toronto won’t have OG Anunoby in this game, and Gary Trent Jr. and Precious Achiuwa are both questionable. I think this is too many points to give a surging Magic team on Tuesday.
Kawhi Leonard OVER 22.5 Points (-110)
This is a discounted number on Kawhi Leonard’s points prop now that the Los Angeles Clippers added Bones Hyland, Eric Gordon and Mason Plumlee at the trade deadline.
Kawhi is averaging 22.0 points per game on the season despite a minutes restriction to open the year, clearing this prop in eight of his last 10 games.
The Warriors have been a bottom-10 unit in defensive rating on the road, and this is the second night of a back-to-back for them.
I don’t think the Clippers’ acquisitions eat into Kawhi’s role going forward. He should push around 25-27 points in this game.
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