It’s been an unreal stretch for yours truly in my NBA column, and as long as I’m hot I am going to implore you to tail these picks.
Sound fair?
We put up a 2-1 day on Monday night to move to 19-5 over the last eight days, probably the best stretch I’ve had in the 2022-23 season.
Tonight, I’m eying one spread pick, one moneyline play and a player prop (something for everyone) in The Association.
Steph Curry is back tonight, Donovan Mitchell is playing a revenge game and Luka Doncic faces Kawhi Leonard to close the night? Why not bet on this amazing NBA slate?
Let’s ride:
NBA best bets today record to date
NBA best bets today
- Oklahoma City Thunder +4 (-105) vs. Miami Heat
- Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline (-145) vs. Utah Jazz
- Anfernee Simons OVER 20.5 Points (-125)
Oklahoma City Thunder +4 (-105) vs. Miami Heat
The Oklahoma City Thunder have moved to just two-point underdogs with Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo out, but I still like them as dogs tonight.
I wrote in my game preview this morning that this may be the case, which is why I bet the Thunder at +4.
“These two teams are complete opposites against the spread this season, as the Thunder are 24-16 (No. 2 in the NBA) while Miami is 16-23-2 (No. 29 in the NBA).
“The Heat have also been abnormally bad as home favorites, going just 4-12-1 against the spread, by far the worst mark as a home favorite for any team with five or more games in that spot this season.
“The Thunder have been a better home team straight up than road team this season, which makes sense with a young team, but they’ve still gone 10-5 against the spread as road dogs, the best mark in the NBA outside of the Boston Celtics, who are 2-0 as road dogs.”
Even at +2, the sentiment stands. OKC covers the spread in this spot.
Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline (-145) vs. Utah Jazz
Can you say revenge game?
Donovan Mitchell makes his return to Utah for the first time since the Jazz traded him to the Cleveland Cavaliers, and the Cavs are short favorites on the road.
Cleveland has struggled on the road this season (8-11 straight up), but I’m fading the Jazz all the way in this game.
Utah has lost seven of its last 10 games to fall to the No. 11 spot in the Western Conference, and the team ranks 27th in the NBA in defensive rating. Cleveland, on the other hand, is a top-10 unit on both offense and defense this season.
The Cavs have a little extra motivation to get this win for Mitchell, and I think outside of that they are the far superior team. Trust them to win tonight.
Anfernee Simons OVER 20.5 Points (-125)
It’s been a while since I went to an Anfernee Simons prop, but I think he’s starting to show some signs of life heading into Tuesday’s matchup with the Orlando Magic.
Simons has cleared 20.5 points in three of his last five games, and the volume has stayed steady for him all season long.
Over his last 10 games, Simons is still playing over 35 minutes per night while averaging 17.0 field goal attempts and 9.7 3-point attempts per game. He’s averaging exactly 20.5 points per game over that stretch.
The Magic rank 25th in the NBA in defensive rating and are 27th in the league in opponent 3-pointers made per game. That’s a good sign for both Simons and Damian Lillard tonight, and I think Simons starts to get back on track from an efficiency standpoint to clear this line.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
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