The Milwaukee Bucks have slipped to the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference, and a loss on Monday night against the New York Knicks would drop them behind the Cleveland Cavaliers as well.
Milwaukee hasn’t been at full strength for most of the 2022-23 season with Khris Middleton dealing with multiple injuries, and he’s expected to miss Monday’s matchup as well.
New York has won four straight games and is half a game behind the Indiana Pacers for the No. 6 seed in the conference. The Knicks have relied heavily on Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson as of late, but RJ Barrett (finger, doubtful) is making progress towards a return to the lineup.
This is an interesting matchup, as the Knicks are just 7-11-2 against the spread at home this season, while the Bucks are 6-10-2 against the spread on the road.
New York has been a different team at home, as it has the best road ATS record in the NBA this season. Milwaukee took the first matchup between these teams at MSG this season, but does it do it again tonight?
Here’s a look at the odds and a pick for this matchup:
Bucks vs. Knicks odds, spread and total
Bucks vs. Knicks prediction and pick
Even though the Knicks have played much better lately, they are overvalued in this spot against the Bucks.
Milwaukee has won five straight games against the Knicks, and the team should give New York’s offense some problems in this game. The Bucks rank third in the NBA in defensive rating this season.
If Barrett suits up the Knicks would have a better chance, but Middleton didn’t play in the first matchup between these teams and Milwaukee still came away with the win.
New York actually has a better net rating than the Bucks this season, but I can’t get past the team’s struggles at home this season. The Knicks are just 10-10 straight up at home, and their net rating goes from eighth in the league to 17th.
The Bucks are a value as short favorites in this matchup.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.