Could there have been a better NBA slate than the games we got on Monday night?
Donovan Mitchell scored 71 points in the Cleveland Cavaliers’ overtime win, Klay Thompson dropped 54 points in the Golden State Warriors double-overtime win… and we swept our NBA bets!
It had been a rough go after Christmas, but yesterday’s sweep has yours truly back on track and ready to attack the three games on Tuesday night.
I have plays in two of the three games, including a prop bet for Domantas Sabonis, who dominated the Utah Jazz the last time he faced them.
Could another sweep be on the horizon?
NBA best bets record to date
NBA best bets today
- Oklahoma City Thunder +9 (-110) vs. Boston Celtics
- Domantas Sabonis OVER 20.5 Points (-135)
- Sacramento Kings +3.5 (-110) vs. Utah Jazz
Oklahoma City Thunder +9 (-110) vs. Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics may have the best record in the Eastern Conference, but this is too many points to give a strong OKC team tonight.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are terrific as home dogs this season, going 8-5 against the spread and 7-6 straight up in those 13 games. Not only that, but OKC actually has a positive average scoring margin in these games (+0.3).
To compare, Boston is just 7-8 against the spread as road favorites, posting an average margin of victory of just +0.5, and their ATS plus/minus in these 15 games is -3.4.
These teams already played once this season, with the Thunder losing by only four points on the road. Now, they get to play at home, where they’ve been much more successful in the 2022-23 season.
Boston probably gets the win, but this number leads me to back the Thunder to cover.
Domantas Sabonis OVER 20.5 Points (-135)
This may be the matchup of the year for Sabonis, who dropped 28 points on a perfect 12-for-12 from the field against the Utah Jazz on Dec. 30.
Sabonis has been terrific this season for the Sacramento Kings, averaging 18.6 points per game, and he’s scored even more as of late, clearing 20.5 points in six of his last nine games.
A dominant threat on the inside, Sabonis should feast against a Jazz team that ranks dead last in the NBA in points in the paint allowed per game at 56.2. He already did it once, and with Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk both questionable, there may be more shots available for Sabonis tonight.
Sacramento Kings +3.5 (-110) vs. Utah Jazz
This line has moved since opening, but for some reason it’s moving towards the Utah Jazz, who have not been great lately.
The Jazz have lost four straight games to fall under .500 on the season, and they now rank 27th in the NBA in defensive rating.
The biggest concern for me is Utah’s record against the spread as a home favorite. The team is 12-6 straight up at home, but just 4-7 ATS as a home favorite, posting a -2.2 against the spread plus/minus in those games.
The Kings should be able to dominate the Jazz down low, and they won the last matchup between these teams. I’ll take the 3.5 points for Sacramento in a game that I think it is live to upset Utah.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
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