The holiday season is upon us, and it looks like Christmas came a week early with my NBA picks, notching a perfect 4-for-4 night on Sunday.
How are we following up a sweep?
Well, I have three plays on Monday night, including a spread pick for Donovan Mitchell’s first game against the Utah Jazz since he was traded in the offseason.
Plus, the best game of the night likely is between the Milwaukee Bucks and New Orleans Pelicans, so let’s place a wager on that matchup as well.
It’s a good time to stay hot:
NBA Best Bets Record-to-Date
NBA Best Bets Record for 2022-23 Season: 92-74-1 (+7.5379 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
- Cleveland Cavaliers -6 (-115) vs. Utah Jazz
- James Harden OVER 20.5 Points (-125)
- Milwaukee Bucks-New Orleans Pelicans UNDER 228 (-110)
Cleveland Cavaliers -6 (-115) vs. Utah Jazz
The Cleveland Cavaliers are one of the best home teams in the NBA this season, going 10-4-1 against the spread as home favorites and 14-2 straight up in Cleveland.
Now, they get a favorable matchup with the Jazz, who are coming back to earth after a strong start to the season.
Utah is just 6-10 straight up away from home, but it has gone 9-7 against the spread in those games. The issue tonight? Utah’s defense.
The Jazz have fallen to 25th in the NBA in defensive rating, which is going to be a problem when you’re facing the league’s best defense and No. 2 team in net rating.
Utah may be able to score against lesser teams, but the Cavs have been way too good at home to fade them here.
James Harden OVER 20.5 Points (-125)
James Harden has cleared 20.5 points in four of his five games since returning from a foot injury, and now he faces a Toronto Raptors team that is in all sorts of trouble entering this game.
The Raptors were just torched for 43 points by Jordan Poole in a loss on Sunday night, their fifth straight and eighth in their last 10 games.
Normally a solid defensive team, Toronto is now 17th in the league in defensive rating, allowing over 110 points in seven straight games.
Harden has been a machine moving the ball (11.8 assists per game since returning), but he’s also taking 15.6 shots and 7.6 free throws per game over this five-game stretch.
I’ll fade Toronto’s defense on a back-to-back with Harden playing this well.
Milwaukee Bucks-New Orleans Pelicans UNDER 228 (-110)
There are some key scorers out for this matchup, as Brandon Ingram and Khris Middleton both won’t suit up.
That’s leading me to a play on the UNDER, even though that isn’t as fun to root for when two good teams are playing. Both of these teams have played elite defense this season, ranking second (Milwaukee) and sixth (New Orleans) in defensive rating.
The Bucks have gone UNDER 228 total points in five of their last eight games, and I think these teams match up well defensively on each other’s star players (Giannis Antetokounmpo and Zion Williamson).
There are also two key trends that favor the UNDER:
- The Bucks are 9-3 on UNDERs on the road this season.
- The Pelicans are 9-6 on UNDERs as the home team this season.
228 is a little high for my liking in this matchup.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
—
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.