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The Indiana Pacers won’t be contending for a title in Orlando, but they still won’t be an easy out in the 2020 NBA Playoffs.
The Indiana Pacers have been a difficult team to peg in recent years, mostly because injury woes have sapped them of their true dark horse potential. Last year, it was Victor Oladipo‘s season-ending knee injury that derailed their season; this year, Domantas Sabonis‘ plantar fasciitis will deprive them of their utmost potential.
With Oladipo only back for 13 games before the NBA season was suspended, the Pacers were probably never going to enter the same orbit as the main Eastern Conference contenders like the Milwaukee Bucks, Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics. But the loss of Sabonis during his first All-Star season is a major bummer for a Pacers squad that was looking forward to finally having Oladipo, Sabonis, Myles Turner, Malcolm Brogdon and T.J. Warren all on the floor together.
However, even with Sabonis possibly out for the entire NBA restart and Dipo’s potential impact being a bit of a mystery, the Pacers are still a well-coached team that won’t just roll over in the playoffs. To that end, it’s worth taking a look at the most effective ways to dismantle Indiana in a seven-game series.
So how do you beat the Indiana Pacers in a playoff series?
Contain the backcourt:
Let’s start with the obvious: The Pacers lack a lot of their offensive bite without their best player from the 2019-20 campaign, not to mention their best player from 2017-19 still working his way back from injury (and undecided on whether he’ll actually play). Myles Turner can be effective around the basket and as a pick-and-pop threat, but he’s not the offensive creator that Indiana has enjoyed in its frontcourt all season long with Sabonis.
To that end, any opponent matching up with the Pacers needs to keep its focus on containing the backcourt attack of Brogdon and (most likely) Oladipo. Warren was Indiana’s leading scorer this season, but his 18.7 points per game aren’t going to hurt you. To fully shut down this 17th-ranked offense, especially with Sabonis out, opponents need to limit Brogdon (16.3 points and a team-high 7.1 assists per game) and prevent Oladipo from getting into a rhythm.
Dipo has looked solid in Indiana’s two scrimmages thus far, shooting an impressive 6-for-13 from 3-point land. Preventing him from feeling comfortable from beyond the arc is step one to making sure he doesn’t re-emerge as the two-way superstar he was pre-injury, which is the only hope the Pacers have of winning a playoff series. This team features a pretty balanced scoring attack, but without Sabonis on the interior, opposing defenses should hone in on containing the guards who will be relied upon more heavily for their offensive creation.
Win the battle of 1s and 3s:
During the regular season, the Pacers were routinely at a disadvantage in the 3-point and free throw columns, both in terms of makes and attempts. They shot reasonably well from these areas of the floor, going 36.3 percent from deep (12th in the NBA) and 78.7 percent from the foul line (12th). Unfortunately, they rarely out-shot their opponent in either category, ranking 29th in 3-point makes and 30th in 3-point attempts, free-throw attempts and free-throw makes.
The Pacers weren’t a streaky team in these respects either, staying remarkably consistent no matter the outcome. In fact, Indiana only saw increases of 0.4 3-point makes and 1.4 free-throw makes per game in wins compared to losses.
This team may have been fairly effective in limiting their opponents’ output from those key areas to combat this problem, but on average, opponents still made 11.4 3-pointers per game to the Pacers’ 10.0 and enjoyed 17.0 made freebies per game to the Pacers’ 15.1. On average, that was an automatic advantage of about six points per game.
That may not sound like much, but it can make all the difference in a playoff game, especially with Sabonis on the sidelines. If teams can simply outperform the league’s lowest producer of 3-point and free-throw makes, they’ll be in good shape in this potential matchup.
Attack the Pacers on the boards:
Credit where credit is due: Nate McMillan’s squad is no pushover. The Pacers were the NBA’s seventh-best defense, countering their middling offense. They rarely turned the ball over, ranking fifth in fewest turnovers per game. They regularly turned opponents’ mistakes into opportunities on the other end, ranking fifth in points off turnovers. And for all their shortcomings on 1s and 3s, they were pretty effective with 2s, ranking eighth in points in the paint, first in percentage of shots coming from 2-point range (a whopping 68.9 percent) and third in overall field goal percentage.
However, if there’s been one Achilles heel of this defensive-minded, 2-point heavy machine, it’s been protecting the boards. The Pacers rarely crashed the glass (27th in offensive rebounding, 28th in second-chance points) and were below-average in sealing possessions with a rebound (20th in defensive rebounding, 15th in opponent second-chance points).
If Indiana’s opponent can prevent this poor offensive rebounding team from crashing the glass and in turn punish them on the other end, that disparity in second-chance opportunities will add up — especially without Sabonis’ team-high 12.4 rebounds per game around to help keep things level. After him, Turner is the Pacers’ second-leading rebounder … at just 6.5 boards per game.
Considering Indiana gave up 11.7 second-chance points per game in wins but a whopping 15.0 per game in losses, this is one fundamental way to make sure the Pacers feel the absence of Sabonis quickly, often and to great effect.