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Catapulted by Luka Dončić’s awesome second season, the Dallas Mavericks go into the Orlando bubble right in the thick of the West’s playoff race.
The 2019-20 season has been loaded with parity, especially in the Western Conference. Among the glut of contenders is the Dallas Mavericks, who could fall anywhere between third and ninth by the end of the regular season.
How they got here makes them one of the most fascinating teams in the playoff bracket. Second-year guard Luka Doncic exceeded expectations once again this season, commandeering an elite offense with pinpoint passes and shifty separation moves.
Around him is a motley crew of guys who know their roles as floor spacers, microwave scorers, rollers and cutters. Among guys in the regular rotation, only Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis have usage rates above 21 percent or take more than 15 shots a game. Luka starts the machine, and everyone else does exactly what they need to.
The result is the best offensive rating in the league by a long shot; the gap between them and the second-highest tally (belonging to the Houston Rockets) is the same as the difference between the second and 15th-best rating (which the New Orleans Pelicans own).
Dallas’ point differential is insane too; its Pythagorean win-loss record is 45-22, meaning its excellent season has actually been below numeric expectations. That five-win gap is the highest among any team heading to the bubble and is indicative that their offense won’t be easy to stop.
So how should playoff opponents approach the Mavericks? Is there a way to slow down Doncic and the gang and still be a competent offense?
So, how do you beat the Dallas Mavericks in a playoff series?
Attack Doncic: This isn’t exactly a unique strategy. But since this is Doncic’s first playoff series, and he has exhibited defensive weaknesses as a pro, it’s only a matter of time before teams try this tactic on for size.
To elaborate, the NBA playoffs are often about finding weak links and exposing them. If a player is a poor defender, opponents will do everything in their power to attack that guy until he’s pulled off the floor. The same is true offensively; if an opponent isn’t a trusted shooter, you better believe his defender is sagging off to act as a free safety.
The former is what might apply to Dallas’ superstar. At 6-foot-8 and nearly 220 pounds, he’s not exactly a quick defender on the perimeter. A quick-twitch guard in a spaced floor (think James Harden and the Houston Rockets) will be a tough matchup for Doncic in isolation.
Even guys Luka’s size expect to be difficult for him. As if anyone needs a reminder, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George belong to the top two teams in the West, and both Los Angeles teams can deploy five-out lineups to expose any chink in a defense’s armor.
The Mavs do have defenders who can cover for him, but only for so long. Dorian Finney-Smith will cover a lot on the perimeter, but after him things get murky. As for the rim, Dwight Powell will miss the rest of the season, and we’re not sure what Maxi Kleber can do against playoff offenses. Kristaps Porzingis may be Dallas’ second-best defender.
Force Porzingis down low: Speaking of Porzingis, he’s at risk to be exposed in the playoffs too. But not defensively; he’s proven to be a good rim protector and has the tools to survive on some stretchy forwards and bigs.
No, the Latvian’s problem will be on offense. Though a good floor spacer for a big (34.9 percent on 7.1 3-point attempts per game), he’s not the best at attacking from the inside. It’s weird how inefficient a 7-footer with his touch is; he’s in the 20th percentile on post-ups despite using the 25th-most possessions of such type (per NBA.com).
This means that from a playoff opponent’s perspective, the core of Porzingis’ offensive game is on the perimeter. Playing him off the line, with a capable rim protector ready to rotate, will make things difficult for the Mavs’ offense.
Teams are bound to put this to the test. Some may even be bold enough to put a guard on him in order to have stronger defense elsewhere. If Porzingis can’t take advantage of a mismatch when the opportunity arises, the Mavs could be in for a long series.
Make the stars beat you: It’s already been alluded to in the first two sections, but the overall point here is strong enough for a third. Doncic and Porzingis are what makes the Mavs go, and if they’re not up to snuff, the whole team will be compromised.
This has happened to young duos before. Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid got stonewalled in the second round of their first playoff run. Bradley Beal and John Wall have yet to see the conference finals. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum have made it there one time together. Young pairs don’t often succeed early, and it’s not a code red when they don’t.
Depending on how these seeding games go, the Mavericks could play any of the Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder, or Utah Jazz in round 1. Avoiding the Clippers entirely is probably their goal, but none of the other four would be an easy dub either.
Houston is an interesting test for Porzingis, who will have a huge size advantage against any Rocket. As stated earlier, he’s not the best at posting up; that could slow the Mavs offense down significantly.
Denver has a more traditional starting lineup, but they can mix and match with versatile deployments as they please. Doncic will have his work cut out for him if the Nuggets can throw an armada of defenders at him, and Porzingis could have an even tougher time if his jumper isn’t falling.
OKC is the dark horse of the West’s second tier. Their three-guard lineup is the best closing quintet in the league this season, and the head of that hydra, Chris Paul, is a seasoned playoff competitor. Doncic should have an easier time attacking their guards, but the Thunder’s postseason experience may be enough to thwart him.
Utah has become an easier opponent for everyone thanks to the loss of Bojan Bogdanovic. Rudy Gobert is an excellent rim protector, but the last thing you want is him covering a stretch-5 like Porzingis. Royce O’Neal or Joe Ingles will likely be put on the Latvian, a risk that could pay off due to his inefficiency posting up, but a risk nonetheless.
Per usual, there’s no one in the West who you’d go out of your way to face in the playoffs. The unstoppable force that is the Mavericks’ offense hasn’t met an unbreakable shield yet, but that could all change in the Orlando bubble. Without sounding like a broken record, the playoffs are a different breed.
Doncic has been nothing short of amazing this season, and his partner in crime is in the right role. We’re very close to finding out just how far they can go.