Deni Avdija is a highly regarded international prospect because of his ability to be a positive contributor on offense and defense.
Despite sharing an affinity for three-quarter leg tights, Deni Avdija is not the next Luka Doncic. Both are 6-foot-8ish European ball-handlers with significant hype and intrigue. But the similarities mostly end there. Avdija is neither the anticipatory passer nor off-the-dribble shooter, but he is a superior defensive prospect.
It feels necessary to distinguish between the two because Avdija will surely garner parallels to the 2018-19 Rookie of the Year from mainstream media as the 2020 NBA Draft approaches. Regardless, Avdija is deserving of praise and attention as a potential top-five pick. He’s just not Doncic, a soon-to-be All-Star and MVP candidate.
Any discussion centered around the Avdija must include his credentials as an interior defender and general IQ on that end of the court. The 18-year-old is a hyper-aware help defender in the lane and that broad skill will prop up the rim protection of whichever team selects him. His timing, alertness and verticality are rare for such a young player and even more so considering the stereotype associated with international prospects who aren’t centers (soft, defensively challenged, etc.).
In addition to those traits, Avdija excels because of core strength and balance (which also make him a stout post defender). When he’s bludgeoned by aggressive drivers, he maintains upright positon. He simply doesn’t crumble in the face of contact. Over his past 82 games, across all leagues, he held opponents to 41 percent shooting at the rim as the primary defender.
Avdija isn’t a particularly quick leaper off the ground and was measured with a 6-foot-9 wingspan at BWB Europe Camp in 2018, so I’m mildly skeptical it entirely translates to the states. Players are longer and more explosive in the NBA. Avdija’s strengths don’t come from athleticism, at least the way we traditionally think about it. There will be instances in which he lacks the length, burst and short-area quickness to alter shots.
Those drawbacks merely restrict him from being relied upon as a primary rim protector, though — a role he was asked to play for stretches overseas. His technique and feel are too fundamentally sound to entirely negate this part of his game. I can comfortably envision him helping off of the corners or wings to pester floaters or layups from perimeter players.
He’s also good enough to periodically serve as the drop big in pick-and-rolls and deter shots from ball-handlers or smaller rollers. These are not tasks you should demand of him on a possession-by-possession basis but he’s exhibited the aptitude to do so in spurts.
Secondary rim protection is probably a bit of an afterthought with regards to prospects but one person can’t be expected to anchor the paint all the time. Having multiple players who fortify the back-line is a necessary component of well-equipped rosters. Avdija is certainly capable of fulfilling that duty.
It isn’t exclusively at the rim where Avdija thrives defensively. He’s an irritant in the passing lanes, anticipating offensive decisions, accumulating deflections and nabbing steals — all attributes that reinforce his defensive IQ.
Many of the steals clipped above are the result of telegraphed passes but Avdija’s motor, wherewithal and quick reaction-time stand out. Players don’t always commit to simple rotations even if they spot them. Avdija consistently does and he’s wired to play hard. That may sound like a recycled, inconsequential talking point but his motor is legitimately a plus and matters in a distinct way compared to other future 2020 lottery picks.
Avdija’s nose for the ball showed during this summer’s FIBA U20 European Championships, where he averaged 2.4 blocks and 2.1 steals in 32.5 minutes per game across seven outings. Obviously, that’s an unsustainable rate but the tape proves those takeaways didn’t fall into his lap. Rather, they were the result of standout parts of his game.
What makes him such an impressive defensive prospect is his marriage of interior excellence with perimeter mobility. He’s displayed the fluidity and strength to contain drivers, tapping into that verticality and balance to alter shots.
Avdija plays too stiff/upright and has a propensity to distribute weight too far forward on his toes at times, making it hard to respond to shifty North-South drives. Combining those flaws with poor lateral movement habits — often crossing one foot over the other or shuffling rather than sliding his feet — suggests he’s not going to be a premier wing stopper without technical improvements or significant gains as a quick-twitch athlete.
However, the duality to function in both a traditional, drop-heavy scheme and a switch-oriented scheme is quite valuable. It means teams won’t have to construct game plans that account for any glaring defensive rigidity. They can be confident he’s ready to handle either approach and allows them to focus more on their opponent rather than internal weaknesses.
The athletic limitations, along with a tendency to bring unnecessary help or abandon strong-side assignments, diminish some of his defensive ceiling. But he more than held his own during the FIBA U20 tournament and many of those players were roughly 18 months older than Avdija, who doesn’t turn 19 until January — granted, most aren’t future NBA players. Unless, I’m underestimating the importance of the aforementioned physical tools, I full expect him to be a very good defender throughout his career (plus-1.50ish Defensive Real Plus-Minus for many years).
Offense is where things are a bit tougher to parse out with Avdija, due to a historically shaky jumper, though an optimal role still isn’t all that challenging to envision. Over the span of 58 games during the 2018-19 season — between international and club play — he shot 27.9 percent (48 of 172) beyond the arc and 54.3 percent (69 of 127) at the free-throw line. Both are troubling signifiers of touch, though there’s at least a modicum of optimism when projecting his potential as a shooter.
From my perspective as an amateur shot doctor and talking with fellow draftniks, Avdija’s primary issue is inconsistent footwork. He often fails to square his feet toward the basket and varies the width of his base. There isn’t really a one-size-fits-all prescription for outside shooting aside from consistency and Avdija hasn’t established that yet. If he’s able to streamline his lower body mechanics, which is a lengthy but achievable process, I’d feel a lot better about his jumper.
Many of his misses are rather ugly — clanking off the side of the rim or missing the rim entirely — and it’s difficult for me to believe he can make all the necessary changes to become a serviceable pull-up shooter, especially given the underwhelming production at the foul line.
Because of his struggles off the bounce, he doesn’t fit the mold of a primary initiator and thus, is more likely to assume a secondary role, where that skill is less paramount. This brings his catch-and-shoot prowess to the forefront. Anecdotally, at least in the many games I’ve watched, he appears far more proficient operating on spot-ups and off-screen attempts than he does off the dribble.
Now, I don’t have (access to) the numbers to back that up and my sentiment could be refuted by numerical evidence. But my analysis of his shooting is working under the assumption that he’ll be a viable threat on spot-ups — and maybe off screens — in the NBA.
As a scorer, Avdija’s most valuable asset is his intersection of driving and finishing. He embraces contact, displays skillful body control and is growing increasingly adept at locking defenders onto his hip. Across the same 82-game sample that I previously referenced with his paint protection, he converted 60 percent of his shots at the rim in the half-court.
For comparison, Jarrett Culver shot 56.1 percent under the same parameters last season, which ranked in the 66th percentile. That’s by no means a perfect parallel because of starkly different competition levels but it’s simply to provide a reference point. There’s more than enough visual proof to convey his finishing craft. He cleverly utilizes his upper body to protect the ball, create space or dislodge defenders.
Coordination and functional strength will enable his finishing and driving at the next level. As will his knack for deftly setting up dribble moves to exploit eager defenders. A questionable jumper and lack of vertical pop are concerning, however. If Avdija continues to be an anemic shooter, he won’t command the same respect from range as shown in the clips. That in and of itself allows other issues to become prevalent.
It’s here where his athletic shortcomings bleed in, as he’s not a long, explosive leaper ready to counter defenses that sag off of him. His vertical burst — or lack thereof — is the biggest question mark when projecting what type of finisher he’ll be in the NBA.
Facilitating his scoring upside is manipulation in ball screens. Avdija smartly utilizes screens — punctually timing their usage or dribbling his man into them — to establish an advantage before applying his physicality to preserve that edge.
Avdija’s off-ball feel is encouraging, especially for a player who so heavily commands the offense during tournaments (FIBA and Maccabi FOX Tel Aviv). Many high-usage, ball-dominant youngsters fail to occupy defenses away from the action yet he doesn’t fall under that umbrella. He’s displayed both instinctual cutting and the ability to thrive in sets with other initiators running the show. In conjunction with his on-ball concerns, it’s another reason he’s best suited as a secondary creator and provides confidence that he’ll be maximized in such a role.
Attacking defenses in motion or off the catch rather than from a standstill is the job of most complementary options. He’s not solely a scorer in these situations, as his 6-foot-8 stature allows him to peer over defenses and pass on the move (this also applies in pick-and-rolls).
While Avdija regularly slings it to rollers and executes drop-off interior feeds, his play-making shines brightest from the mid-post — at least in half-court settings. As a physical, wily and patient back-to-the-basket scorer, he produces efficiently enough to draw multiple sets of eyes, often utilizing a baseline spin move to shake his primary defender for buckets.
Avdija occasionally flashes live-dribble skip passes to cutters, the corners or lifting shooters but the consistency with which he capitalized from the mid-post is unrivaled in his half-court distributing arsenal.
Yet it’s on outlet passes where various alluring aspects of his skill-set fuse to breed an elite transition spark plug. Avdija is constantly looking to flick full-court bombs after rebounds. His motor and tenacity on the glass help ensure that he’ll find those opportunities in the NBA, though he’s a bit overzealous in the open floor. He must refine his decision-making in that regard for teams to fully trust him and enable that part of his game.
These passes — testaments to his IQ, awareness, instincts and accuracy — are genuinely special. Any time he snares a rebound, the potential for a stress-free basket is brewing. It’s not as though Avdija is only producing highlights because of poor defensive effort. He is firing dimes only a select group of professionals could emulate.
The NBA average for transition efficiency last season was 1.09 points per possession compared to 0.96 in the half-court. Avdija increases the number of chances to score in transition — an easier context to derive points from — by spoon-feeding teammates the ball in opportunistic spots.
Deni Avdija is one of the smartest prospects eligible for the 2020 NBA Draft. He pairs wide-ranging, two-way versatility with elite transition creation and secondary rim protection. Throughout his career, he’ll substantially ease his team’s offensive and defensive burdens by donning a number of different hats. Very few players should hear their names called before his next June.