There’s just one more series to go in the 2022-23 NBA season, so you know that I have to get as many player prop picks off as possible.
The Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat face off in Game 1 on Thursday, and there are a boatload of props to bet on the board. I’ve narrowed it down to my three favorites, including a play for two-time MVP Nikola Jokic.
Let’s break down the picks:
Heat vs. Nuggets best NBA prop bets for Game 1
- Nikola Jokic OVER 50.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
- Bruce Brown OVER 0.5 3-Pointers Made
- Caleb Martin UNDER 16.5 Points
Nikola Jokic OVER 50.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists
Jokic has given Bam Adebayo fits over the last three seasons, and I don’t know what Miami can really do to slow him down.
The Heat lack the interior defense outside of Adebayo to truly handle Jokic, and he’s been absolutely dominant this postseason, averaging a triple-double.
Jokic has picked up at least 51 points, rebounds and assists in eight of his last nine playoff games. In the NBA Finals, I expect him to have his handprints all over Game 1.
Bruce Brown OVER 0.5 3-Pointers Made
Bruce Brown is going to be an important player for Denver once again in this series, especially if the Heat decide to go small.
The veteran guard shot 35.8 percent from 3 during the regular season, and while that number has dipped in the playoffs, he’s still made at least one shot from deep in five of his last six games.
Brown is going to take open shots, and he’s attempted 2.5 shots from deep per game over the course of the playoffs. However, over his last six games that number has increased to 3.2.
At -125, Brown is a value to find the range in Game 1.
Caleb Martin UNDER 16.5 Points
Caleb Martin cleared his points prop in all seven games of the Eastern Conference Finals, but he’s bound to cool off at some point for Miami.
The veteran forward averaged just 10.8 points per game in the playoffs prior to the Boston series, and I think his shooting against the Celtics is unsustainable.
Martin shot an incredible 60.2 percent from the field and 48.9 percent from 3-point range in the Eastern Conference Finals. During the regular season, he shot just 46.4 percent from the field and 35.6 percent from 3.
I’m not going to walk into this trap with his points prop climbing each day.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.