For just the second time in NBA history, a No. 8 seed is in the NBA Finals, and that’s caused the exact outcomes or correct score odds for the series to look extremely lopsided.
The No. 1-seeded Denver Nuggets have better odds to win the series in five, six, seven or four games than the Miami Heat do for any outcome, a major reason why Denver is the team our betting experts (myself included) picked to win the NBA Finals.
If you’re looking to pick the exact outcome for a little extra boost in the odds, here’s how to go about it in the 2023 NBA Finals.
Heat vs. Nuggets correct score (Exact outcome odds)
Predicting the NBA Finals exact outcome
Even though the Heat have gone on a crazy run to make the NBA Finals, I still think Denver is the team to bet on to win this series.
Miami showed some of its weaknesses against the Boston Celtics, struggling to keep up offensively when Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo had down games.
That’s going to be tough against a Denver team that has been one of the best offenses in the league all season long, especially in the playoffs.
Among playoff teams, Denver ranks:
- First in offensive rating
- First in net rating
- First in rebounding percentage
- First in assist to turnover ratio
- First in true shooting percentage
- First in turnover percentage
The Nuggets are also elite at home (34-7 in the regular season, 8-0 in the playoffs), and they have the home-court advantage in this series.
Once you decide on the team (I’m going with Denver), then it’s up to the games.
Dating back to the 2018-19 season, each NBA Finals (four straight) has ended in six games. While Denver winning in six games would mean the team closes things out on the road, the Heat did lose two games at home in the previous series against Boston.
I don’t think Miami rolls over and loses in four or five games, but I also think Denver is good enough to avoid being pushed to a Game 7. That leaves us with Nuggets in 6, and at +440 it’s a pretty valuable price to bet as well.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.