The Houston Rockets have a new head coach and big dreams. Will they emerge from the offseason as contenders or rebuilders?
The Houston Rockets finished last season 22-60, tied with San Antonio for dead last in the Western Conference. Unfortunately, the NBA Draft gods decided to reward the Rockets’ in-state rivals with the No. 1 pick and the chance to select Victor Wembanyama.
The Rockets slid all the way back to No. 4 — after beating the Spurs in a coin toss for the honorary second-best odds. That cruel irony, compounded by Wembanyama’s apparent fist pump when the Rockets landed outside the top spot, will only fuel the fanbase’s current “nobody believes in us” disposition. But, there is that matter to deal with. Nobody believes in the Houston Rockets. Can this offseason change that?
Houston will enter the summer with over $60 million in projected cap space. The Rockets recently hired Ime Udoka, one of the most respected head coaches in players’ circles, to help the team take a step forward. It has been widely reported that the Rockets interviewed coaching candidates about potential star additions in free agency.
One thing is abundantly clear: the Rockets mean business.
How far Houston can progress in one summer is yet to be seen. The Rockets are not the league’s premier free agent destination, but enough cash and no state taxes have convinced many a free agent in years past. Plus there’s one marquee free agent in particular — a former Rocket with deep roots in the city — who has been looming over the franchise all season.
The Rockets have enough young talent to maneuver the trade market, enough cap space to hammer free agency, and the draft capital to make another splash in June. Houston could go in any number of directions this summer. It’s always good for a team to have optionality, but what the Rockets do with all those options is what really counts.
Houston Rockets outgoing free agents
The Rockets’ young core is all under contract. The primary free agents hitting the market are veterans.
- Frank Kaminsky, 30, C
- Kenyon Martin Jr., 22, SF (Club Option)
- Boban Marjanovic, 34, C
- D.J. Augustin, 35, PG
- Willie Cauley-Stein, 29, C
- Trevor Hudgins, 24, PG (RFA)
- Darius Days, 23, SF (RFA)
The two veteran centers, Frank Kaminsky and Boban Marjanovic, both have situational utility. If the Rockets picture themselves as contenders, bringing back cheap veteran contributors who can eat 10-15 minutes behind Alperen Sengun at center could be justified by the front office.
The splashiest name here is KJ Martin, but he’s only on the list by technicality. The Rockets will exercise his $1.5 million team option and not think twice about it. Martin appeared in all 82 games for Houston last season (including 49 starts) and averaged 12.7 points per game.
The remainder of this list are mostly expendable. Augustin and Cauley-Stein both have one foot out of the league. Hudgins and Days are both two-way contract recipients who struggled to make noise on a team littered with young prospects vying for minutes.
Houston Rockets trade targets
The Rockets will probably be stronger players on the free-agent market than on the trade market. Houston could theoretically facilitate a sign-and-trade for Harden (or another free agent star, like Khris Middleton) but with so much cap space, odds are the Rockets would just sign Harden outright.
That said, there has been buzz around potentially trading the No. 4 pick for a star. The list of available “stars” is barren at first glance, but with Toronto on the verge of a tear-down, names like O.G. Anunoby or Pascal Siakam are worth monitoring. There have also been rumors of Karl-Anthony Towns eventually getting traded and the Washington Wizards recently gave complete control of basketball operations to a new manager. Maybe Bradley Beal finally hits the market?
Houston Rockets free agent targets
Well… James Harden. The smoke around Harden to Houston has been billowing since December, so recent theorizing about Harden using the Rockets as leverage feels slightly hollow. Why is Houston talking with coaches about Harden unless he’s firmly on the radar?
Obviously, the Rockets have not been allowed to discuss free agency with Harden and NBA front offices are stringent rule-followers when it comes to tampering. There’s just no way Harden or Houston have telegraphed a potential move to one another. Yeah, psych. The Rockets could very well know Harden’s decision already. It is us, the outside observers, who must wait until July for absolute certainty.
There are other second-tier stars on the market too. Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez from the Bucks are noteworthy names if Milwaukee goes in a new direction. Heck, maybe the Rockets get funky a throw a max offer at Kyrie Irving.
The Rockets are also one of the teams capable of handing a massive offer sheet to one of the Lakers’ young studs, Austin Reaves or Rui Hachimura. Reaves in particular could be a strong fit next to Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. in the backcourt.
A few lower-tier free agents to watch if the Rockets desire win-now pieces: Josh Hart, Dillon Brooks, Jae Crowder, Bruce Brown.
Houston Rockets NBA Draft targets
The Rockets own the No. 4 and No. 20 picks in the 2023 NBA Draft. Assuming the first pick is kept, Houston can expect star-level upside from whichever prospect lands in their lap. The fall from No. 2 to No. 4 was disappointing for a lot of fans, but there are definitely worse years for that kind of fall to happen.
Houston is widely expected to look at the Thompson twins, Amen and Ausar. Both are non-shooting guards, so the Rockets’ understanding of the free-agent market could play a role in their decision. If Harden to Houston is a foregone conclusion, it wouldn’t be shocking for the Rockets to look for a wing or a big.
That being said, Jarace Walker played right down the road at the University of Houston. He can guard 1-5, he’s an excellent passer for his position, and he has legitimate small-ball five potential in matchups that don’t favor Sengun. Cam Whitmore, Taylor Hendricks, and Anthony Black could also be in the mix.
The No. 20 pick has a much wider range of potential outcomes. For Houston, the emphasis should be on defense. The Rockets were near the bottom of the league defensively last season and the lack of discipline under Stephen Silas was a persistent issue. Ime Udoka fashioned the most intimidating defense in the NBA during his one year with Boston.
Some personal recommendations: Dariq Whitehead, Bilal Coulibaly, Leonard Miller, Jordan Walsh, Andre Jackson Jr., Colby Jones.
For more information on this year’s NBA Draft class, check out our latest Mock Draft and Big Board.
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