We’re backkkkk.
After a few days off from writing (a guy has to play a few rounds of golf from time to time), I have a loaded NBA best bets column for Sunday’s two NBA playoff games.
We’ve been hot over the last four days, netting four units across 14 different picks:
On Sunday, we have Game 4s between the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers and the Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns. That’s a perfect time for a five-pick day if you ask me.
Let’s break them down:
NBA best bets record to date
NBA best bets today
- Boston Celtics ML (-140) vs. Philadelphia 76ers
- Denver Nuggets ML (+120) vs. Phoenix Suns
- Kevin Durant OVER 44.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)
- Joel Embiid to Record a Double-Double (-185)
- Grant Williams OVER 0.5 3-Pointers Made (-145) – Half unit play
Boston Celtics ML (-140) vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Depending where you get this, you may be able to get a better price than I did early Sunday morning, but regardless, Boston has the edge in this game.
The Celtics completely flipped their game plan from Game 1, shooting way more shots from deep, making 36 combined over the last two games of the series after taking just 26 in Game 1.
Jaylen Brown has also given James Harden fits, helping limit the former MVP to just 5-for-28 shooting in the last two games after he scored 45 points in Game 1.
Boston was one of the best teams in the NBA as a road favorite this season, going 25-13 straight up. It is also now 5-2 against Philly in the 2022-23 campaign.
I do get worried about a letdown game from Boston, which has happened this postseason, but if Harden can’t get going I don’t see Philly keeping up with a humming Celtics offense.
Denver Nuggets ML (+120) vs. Phoenix Suns
I love both road teams today, and the Nuggets are road dogs in Game 4 against the Phoenix Suns.
Something is up in this game with the odds being set at Phoenix -2.5 after the Suns closed as four-point favorites in Game 3. Denver lost by seven in that game, but oddsmakers, and myself, know that Phoenix’s performance is unsustainable.
Here’s why:
Kevin Durant and Devin Booker combined for 71 percent of the team’s points (86 in total) in Game 3, and Booker shot a ridiculous 20-for-25 from the field. While Durant shot just 12-for-31, he also took a season-high 16 free throws in the game.
Phoenix’s bench, which has been nonexistent in the playoffs, combined for 22 points with Chris Paul missing Game 3. In the first two games of the series, the Suns had 29 total bench points.
Despite Booker’s unconscious night, Denver still hung around all night in Game 3. I think there is regression coming on Phoenix’s end, and the Nuggets should be able to pull off a road win in Game 4.
Kevin Durant OVER 44.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120)
Regression may be coming for Phoenix, but I don’t think it will be as big for Durant, who scored 39 points in Game 3 to go with nine rebounds and eight assists, which would easily clear this number set for him on Sunday.
With CP3 out, Durant took over as the primary initiator of the team’s offense in Game 3, tallying eight dimes, his second highest of the postseason.
KD shot just 12-for-31 from the field in Game 3, a rare occurrence and he started by making just one of his first nine shots.
He’s too good of a scorer to struggle that much again, and that should negate the fact that he took a season-high 16 free throws in the game to help him to his 39.
In the playoffs, Durant is averaging 8.6 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game. Given his usage from Game 3, he should do enough in the scoring department to clear this in Game 4.
Joel Embiid to Record a Double-Double (-185)
I’m not going to lie, this is a lot of juice to take on a prop, but I’m extremely confident it’s going to hit.
Why? Embiid has been a double-double machine against Boston this season, and in his career.
The league MVP picked up a double-double in four of his six matchups with the C’s this season, including a 30-point 13-rebound showing in Game 3.
For his career, Embiid averages 28.0 points, 12.0 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game in 22 games against Boston.
The Sixers need to win this game, and even though I think they won’t, I wouldn’t be shocked if Doc Rivers tries to push Embiid’s minutes a little to try and pull off the win.
That should give him enough run to grab double-digit boards and clear this prop, because the points are almost a guarantee.
Grant Williams OVER 0.5 3-Pointers Made (-145) – Half unit play
A Grant Williams bet? In this economy?
That’s right.
Grant has quietly pushed himself back into the rotation against the Sixers, and he’s given Joel Embiid some problems with his aggressive play.
This postseason, Grant has played real minutes in just four games for Boston, but he’s shot pretty well in those contests:
Game 3 vs. Atlanta: 4-for-4 from 3
Game 6 vs. Atlanta: 1-for-2 from 3
Game 2 vs. Philly: 4-for-8 from 3
Game 3 vs. Philly 0-for-3 from 3
When Williams plays, he’s going to get open looks since opposing defenses would rather leave him than any of Boston’s other shooters. He’s also not afraid to take them, which is good for his chances of hitting this prop.
I put just a half unit on this one, but I love Grant to find the range in Game 4.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.