After a strong weekend performance, the beginning of this week hasn’t been as strong as I would have liked in these NBA plays, especially after a 1-3 day on Wednesday night.
Nothing changes in the strategy, as I’m going to trust the same methods that have gotten us to +16 units on the season.
Two of my favorite teams to bet against the spread are in action tonight, and I also have a trio of player props, something we haven’t done in a while for a Thursday night slate. There’s no time like the present to bounce back:
NBA best bets record to date
NBA best bets today
- New York Knicks -3.5 (-110) vs. Orlando Magic
- Mitchell Robinson OVER 15.5 Points and Rebounds (-110)
- Jalen Brunson OVER 23.5 Points (-120)
- Mikal Bridges OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+115)
- Oklahoma City Thunder +4 (-110) vs. Los Angeles Clippers
New York Knicks -3.5 (-110) vs. Orlando Magic
There are plenty of reasons to love the New York Knicks as road favorites against the Orlando Magic.
Yes, New York is 0-2 this week, but the team is elite as a road favorite this season (league best 8-2 ATS), and the Knicks thrive on the second night of a back-to-back under Tom Thibodeau.
New York’s defense has to be better after allowing 140 and 127 points in its last two games, but the Magic (26th in offensive rating) are a perfect team to bounce back against. I’ll lay the points with New York.
Mitchell Robinson OVER 15.5 Points and Rebounds (-110)
I think this Mitchell Robinson play is my favorite of the night, as his prop for points and rebounds has come crashing back down to where it started when he returned from injury.
Robinson has cleared this line in 10 of his last 14 games, averaging 8.0 points and 9.4 rebounds per game over that stretch. The Knicks big man is coming off a strong 10-point, eight-rebound game on Wednesday against Miami.
Robinson did have 14 points and six boards in his lone matchup against the Magic this season, and there’s value in taking him to turn things around after a few rough games brought his prop numbers back down.
Jalen Brunson OVER 23.5 Points (-120)
Jalen Brunson has put up 25, 23 and 24 points in his three games back from a foot injury, and he’s taking plenty of shots (18 per game) over that stretch.
This is a must-win game for the Knicks, so I expect Brunson to be aggressive early and often against an Orlando team that is just 19th in the league in defensive rating.
Over his last 19 games, Brunson has cleared this number in 13 of them, averaging 27.4 points per game on 53.6 percent shooting from the field and 42.6 percent shooting from 3.
Go OVER on his points prop tonight.
Mikal Bridges OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+115)
This is a bounce-back play for Mikal Bridges, who shot a dreadful 0-for-8 from 3 in Tuesday’s loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Bridges gets a chance at revenge on Thursday against Cleveland, and he’s been a machine from deep as of late. Over his last 17 games (since joining Brooklyn), Bridges is averaging 2.5 made 3s on 6.2 attempts per game (40.6 percent).
He’s made at least three shots from deep in nine of those games, and he’s taken seven or more shots from 3-point range in seven of his last eight games.
The Cavs defend the 3-point line well in terms of makes per game (second in the NBA), but they are 22nd in opponent 3-point percentage (37.0 percent).
If Bridges keeps shooting at this volume (7.8 attempts per game over his last eight), I think he has a great chance to go OVER this prop, which is at plus money.
Oklahoma City Thunder +4 (-110) vs. Los Angeles Clippers
If the Oklahoma City Thunder are set as road underdogs, I’m almost always betting on them.
OKC is an impressive 19-8-3 ATS as a road underdog this season (70.4 percent cover rate), the second best mark in the NBA. The Thunder covered against this Los Angeles Clippers team as a seven-point dog on Tuesday, and now it is a four-point underdog with Paul George sidelined due to a knee injury.
The Thunder are one of the better teams in the NBA this season based on their advanced numbers, ranking 15th in offensive rating, 10th in defensive rating and 10th in net rating.
While the Clippers are the No. 5 seed in the West, they are also just 6-11 straight up without George this season and 0-3 against the Thunder.
I love getting points on an OKC team that is looking to make a playoff push.
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