The Miami Heat have taken a major step back after finishing with the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference last season, and they remain in the play-in tournament picture in the East this season.
Miami lost in overtime to the Orlando Magic on Saturday, giving up 18 points in the extra period after battling back to tie the game on a Jimmy Butler 3 as time expired in the fourth quarter.
Now, Miami hosts the Utah Jazz, who are ninth in the Western Conference and have won back-to-back games. Jordan Clarkson (questionable) and Collin Sexton (out) are both on the injury report for Utah in this game.
Miami, who got Kyle Lowry back on Saturday after a lengthy absence with a knee injury, has listed Lowry and Caleb Martin as questionable. Duncan Robinson and Cody Zeller are out.
Can the Heat put their struggles as a favorite behind them in this game?
Jazz vs. Heat odds, spread and total
Jazz vs. Heat prediction and pick
There may not be a better bet in the NBA than fading the Heat as home favorites.
Miami is just 8-21-2 against the spread in those games this season, and now it takes on a Utah team that has thrived as a road underdog, going 16-9-1 ATS.
Clarkson’s status for this game will be key for the Jazz, as their guard play has suffered since trading away Malik Beasley and Mike Conley, but I think Utah ends up covering in this game.
The Heat are just 23rd in the NBA in net rating, and they haven’t been a consistent offense all season long, ranking 26th in offensive rating and playing at an extremely slow pace.
The Jazz, who are 16th in net rating, are seventh in the NBA in offensive rating, so I think they’ll be able to hang around with this Miami attack.
Utah has shown time and time again that it can be a play-in team in the West, and I think the Heat are overvalued at home, where they have struggled from a betting perspective all season.
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