Close games and clutch minutes bring a lot of random chaos. Case in point — the NBA standings would look very different with only close games.
The best teams are, generally, the best teams at winning close games. But things don’t always work out that way. The random variance imbued in small samples, limited minutes and finite possessions can change things dramatically. It’s one of the reasons clutch performance isn’t a notably reliable predictor of future performance and tends to vary quite a bit from season to season.
But there are some teams who have consistently found an edge there this year and the NBA standings would look pretty different if we only included games that matched the NBA’s definition of clutch scenarios — any game where the scoring margin is within five at any point in the final five minutes.
Eastern Conference standings: Close games only
1. Milwaukee Bucks — 22-6 (.786)
2. Boston Celtics — 18-8 (.692)
3. Brooklyn Nets — 20-10 (.667)
4. Philadelphia 76ers — 19-11 (.633)
5. Miami Heat — 23-18 (.561)
6. New York Knicks — 17-15 (.531)
7. Cleveland Cavaliers — 17-16 (.515)
8. Indiana Pacers — 19-18 (.514)
9. Atlanta Hawks — 14-15 (.483)
10. Toronto Raptors — 15-19 (.441)
11. Washington Wizards — 13-18 (.419)
12. Detroit Pistons — 11-17 (.393)
13. Orlando Magic — 12-19 (.387)
14. Charlotte Hornets — 12-21 (.364)
15. Chicago Bulls — 10-20 (.333)
Western Conference standings: Close games only
1. Denver Nuggets — 17-9 (.654)
2. Minnesota Timberwolves — 19-13 (.594)
3. Los Angeles Clippers — 18-13 (.581)
4. Sacramento Kings — 18-13 (.581)
5. Dallas Mavericks — 21-16 (.568)
6. Memphis Grizzlies — 13-11 (.542)
7. Los Angeles Lakers — 15-16 (.484)
8. New Orleans Pelicans — 13-14 (.481)
9. Golden State Warriors — 14-16 (.467)
10. Phoenix Suns — 11-14 (.440)
11. Utah Jazz — 18-23 (.439)
12. Portland Trail Blazers — 13-17 (.439)
13. Oklahoma City Thunder — 13-20 (.394)
14. Houston Rockets — 10-20 (.333)
15. San Antonio Spurs — 6-15 (.286)
Takeaways from the NBA standings if only close games counted
The East has been dominant: The top three records in close games and four of the top five belong to the Eastern Conference. The Denver Nuggets are the lone team from the West to break through.
Biggest risers and fallers: The Chicago Bulls would fall five spots in the Eastern Conference standings. The Phoenix Suns would fall five spots in the Western Conference standings. The Los Angeles Lakers would climb six spots in the Western Conference standings.
A historic trajectory: If the Bucks can hold their current win percentage (.786) in close games, they would tie the 2021-22 Phoenix Suns for the best clutch win percentage of any team since the 2015-16 Warriors.
The Nuggets can flip the switch: While the Nuggets don’t have the best clutch win percentage, they do have the best clutch point differential in the league by an enormous margin — they’re plus-19.5 per 100 possessions in clutch situations, the Nets are next at plus-13.9. That shows when games get close they can flip the switch and turn a close game into a blowout rather quickly.
Check out The Step Back for more news, analysis, opinion and unique basketball coverage. Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter and Instagram and subscribe to our daily email newsletter, The Whiteboard.