The Miami Heat are one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now, winning three straight games and seven of their last 10 matchups to jump into the No. 6 seed in the East.
Miami has finally gotten healthy after losing Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Victor Oladipo and others for stretches in the 2022-23 season.
Now, the Heat are looking to make a move for a top spot in the conference, and they have a favorable matchup on Sunday against the Charlotte Hornets.
The Hornets have Gordon Hayward back in the lineup, but the team just hasn’t been able to put things together this season, going 14-36, including a brutal 6-16 at home.
LaMelo Ball missed a lot of time this season with ankle injuries, but the Hornets simply aren’t a good team, ranking 30th in offensive rating and 27th in net rating this season.
The Heat have won both matchups between these teams this season, but can they pull out a third straight?
Here’s a look at the odds and a pick for this Sunday afternoon matchup:
Heat vs. Hornets odds, spread and total
Heat vs. Hornets prediction and pick
The Hornets have not only been bad straight up at home, but they have also struggled to cover the spread, going just 5-11 as home dogs this season.
The Heat have some bad numbers against the spread on the season, but injuries have been a contributor to that. Miami has also been better as a road favorite (5-6-1 ATS) than at home this season.
Neither of these teams have been on offense this season (Miami is 27th in defensive rating), but we always know that Erik Spoelstra’s teams are going to defend.
The Heat rank fourth in the NBA in defensive rating, while Charlotte clocks in at No. 27.
Miami won the first meeting between these teams by five points before picking up a 17-point win in the second game.
I think this matchup is somewhere in the middle of that, and I like the Heat as six-point favorites. Charlotte is going to struggle to score against this defense, as the Heat have allowed 105 or fewer points in four of their last five games.
Roll with the Heat to win and cover on Sunday.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.