Another day, another NBA Best Bets column from yours truly, and as usual on Thursday, we’re going with a player prop heavy card with just three games on the slate.
My strategy with props lately has been pretty simple, as I’ve been trying to find lines that are a bit too low or high for star players, and we have a great one tonight with Los Angeles Clippers star Paul George against the Miami Heat.
In addition to that, I have a plus-money play that should get things going in the right direction after a few down performances earlier this week.
We’re still positive on the season and well over .500 heading into Thursday. Let’s break down these picks and hopefully lock in a 2-0 night!
NBA Best Bets Record to Date
NBA Best Bets Record for 2022-23 Season: 75-65-1 (+0.98 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
Paul George OVER 31.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115)
Anfernee Simons OVER 4.5 Assists (+120)
Paul George OVER 31.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115)
Paul George is averaging 22.7 points, 5.9 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game this season, clearing 31.5 PRA in nine of his 18 games. While that may not seem like a lot, George has been money on this prop when he scores over 20 points.
He’s failed to clear this in his first two games back from injury, but George may have a bigger role tonight if Kawhi Leonard (rest, back-to-back) is out.
The Clippers star is still seeing plenty of usage in the shots department, and he’s almost a lock to go OVER this number if he finishes with more than 20 points. I’ll back PG to have a major role tonight.
Anfernee Simons OVER 4.5 Assists (+120)
Looking for a plus money prop tonight?
You don’t have to go any further than taking the assists prop for Blazers guard Anfernee Simons, who is averaging exactly 4.5 assists per game on the season.
Simons has picked up at least four assists in nine straight games, clearing 4.5 dimes in seven of those matchups. He’s playing a ton of minutes for Portland, and the Nuggets are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 26th in defensive rating.
The absolute floor for Simons appears to be falling just short, while the ceiling is clearing this with ease. This prop should be closer to -110 odds than +120.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.