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Everyone would prefer an NBA postseason without injuries, where every matchup plays out with two teams battling at the peaks of their possibility. Unfortunately, chaos reigns and injuries have already hammered a number of contenders.
The Milwaukee Bucks have lost Donte DiVincenzo for the rest of the postseason. Joel Embiid is undergoing an MRI today to diagnose a knee injury he suffered in the 76ers’ Game 4 loss to the Wizards. Anthony Davis is questionable for Game 5 with a groin injury and Luka Doncic is struggling through serious nerve pain. How do these injuries change the championship picture?
Can the Los Angeles Lakers survive without Anthony Davis?
The Lakers actually have a decent statistical track record, leaning on LeBron without Davis. During the regular season, they were plus-7.7 per 100 possessions in nearly 1000 regular-season minutes with LeBron on and Davis off. In this first-round series, they’ve outscored the Suns by an average of 17.0 points per 100 possessions with LeBron on the floor and Davis on the bench in the series.
The problem is that this scenario dramatically increases the pressure on LeBron. In those regular-season minutes with LeBron and without Davis, LeBron’s usage rate jumped to 33.2 and he averaged 8.5 assists per 36 minutes and the pattern has been similar against the Suns. The Lakers can play suffocating defense and lean on LeBron to generate enough offense to get through. It’s a formula that worked for deep playoff runs for a half-dozen Cleveland Cavaliers’ teams.
But without Davis, this just isn’t a championship supporting cast. The best hope for the Lakers is that LeBron can keep the team afloat long enough for Davis to get back on the court.
Can the Philadelphia 76ers survive without Joel Embiid?
They can almost certainly survive the first round, they get three more chances to beat the Wizards and advance and they were 10-11 during the regular season in games Embiid couldn’t play. But, after that, things get a bit hairier. The 76ers appear headed for a second-round matchup with the Atlanta Hawks, a team that could really gouge them with their pick-and-roll attack without Embiid anchoring the defense in the center of the floor.
If the 76ers were to get through that, the Eastern Conference Finals would offer up either the Milwaukee Bucks or Brooklyn Nets, either of whom could arguably claim a talent edge even with both teams at full strength. Without Embiid, the 76ers would be working at a significant disadvantage and particularly vulnerable inside on defense. The 76ers can advance without Embiid but their championship hopes are essentially nil if he isn’t eventually back and close to 100 percent.
Can the Dallas Mavericks survive without Luka Doncic?
A nerve issue reportedly started bothering Doncic at halftime of Game 3. Although he scored 18 points in the second half, he was clearly affected — shooting 6-of-13 from the field, missing four free throws and turning the ball over three times. He followed that up with a disastrous (by his standards) Game 4 — 19 points on 24 shots, 6 assists and 3 turnovers. To be clear, the Mavericks are only 2-2 in the series because of Doncic. For the entire series, the Mavericks have scored an average of 104.4 points per 100 possessions with Doncic off the floor, getting outscored by a total 28 points in 39 minutes. Over the past six quarters, since the nerve issue began flaring, the Mavericks have been outscored by 22 points in the 56 minutes Doncic has played, managing just 100.0 points per 100 possessions.
If he’s not back to his previous world-beating form, the Mavericks are done.
Can the Milwaukee Bucks survive without Donte DiVincenzo?
On the surface, this question is in a different category. DiVincenzo is very much a complementary player, far from the talent tier of Doncic, Davis and Embiid. But his absence, confirmed for the entire playoffs, raises the level of difficulty for the Bucks, significantly. He was fifth on the team in minutes and played keystone roles on both ends of the floor, helping hold lineups together with ball pressure, shooting and creation ability.
Against the Nets, he likely would have spent a lot of time guarding Kyrie Irving, allowing Holiday to take Harden, Middleton to take Durant and Giannis to freelance off the ball. Now, everyone in that group may have to slide down a defensive matchup putting more pressure on Brook Lopez for rim protection and putting Pat Connaughton or Bryn Forbes in line to chase Joe Harris around ball screens.
The Bucks still have their core three and requisite depth to make something special happen. But it’s all a touch harder than it could have been.
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