One of the biggest players of the offseason, the Portland Trail Blazers made a splash in their chase for a championship. Here are their five big questions for them heading into 2020-21.
1. Is Robert Covington the wing Portland has been waiting for?
The Blazers spent all of last season putting a band-aid on the wing rotation. After losing Al-Farouq Aminu and dumping Moe Harkless’ salary last summer, they had to do some serious improvisation at the forward spots. Their starting 3 and 4 for most of the 2019-20 season were Mario Hezonja and Carmelo Anthony. Not great!
Knowing that they couldn’t do that again, they made one of the best moves of the offseason, trading Trevor Ariza and two first-round picks for Robert Covington. The undrafted free agent from Tennessee State made it big with the Philadelphia 76ers “Process” team, and then became a valuable cog of their 2017-18 starting lineup that finished with the best net rating in the league. He is considered a model “3-and-D” wing, a valuable prototype for any championship lineup. The Houston Rockets just traded two firsts for Covington at the last trade deadline, and now he’s been shipped to Portland for two more; contenders are willing to pay for a guy like him.
Covington is not without his flaws though. For one, the “3” part of his label is overrated; for his career, Covington has only shot 35.6 percent on 3s. And like many players who can shoot but are not shooters, his efficacy varies greatly from night to night. His 7-for-13 peaks are likely to be found only a few days apart from his 2-for-12 troughs. Additionally, he’s more of a help defender than an on-ball, lock up the opponent’s best player type of stopper. If he’s stuck guarding an elite wing on an island, he’s probably toast.
That being said, he’ll help the Blazers significantly. Their roster wasn’t the most switchable bunch before adding Covington, so he probably won’t be asked to do that too much. He’ll find his niche as a ballhawk, wreaking havoc in passing lanes when Jusuf Nurkic drops back to protect the rim. Additionally — most importantly, many would argue — he’ll stay in his lane offensively. He’s a great fit next to high-usage stars because he doesn’t do anything offensively other than take catch-and-shoot 3s, move the ball and crash the boards. Portland’s been pretty cold on the wings recently; Covington can at least be lukewarm.
2. With Covington, a healthy Jusuf Nurkic and a deeper bench, the Blazers’ playoff ceiling is .
Conference Finals. This offseason caused a rift in the West: the Los Angeles Lakers are at the top, and then everyone else is jockeying for position behind them. The Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers were a close second and third last year, but the glut of the Blazers, Utah Jazz, Dallas Mavericks, Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors is not far behind them. You can really talk yourself into any of them jousting with the Lakers in the conference finals.
Portland’s case mostly comes down to Lillard. A top-10 player with proven playoff chops is enough to be competitive in any series, especially one with Lillard’s in-demand skill set. His elite pull-up game and range forces defenders to watch him at all times, and his dexterity with the ball is dangerous for the man tasked with guarding him. He’s a good offense all his own.
Now that Portland has a competent wing defender in Covington and a full season of solid rim protection in Nurkic (hopefully), the other end should at least be digestible. The former should be especially helpful against the LeBron James’ and Kawhi Leonard’s of the world; Covington has weaknesses, as mentioned above, but he’s a much better option than anyone Portland has had recently.
With a passable defense, great shot creation from Lillard and CJ McCollum, and an innings-eater to bang with the bigs down low, the Blazers are right in the thick of the West’s playoff race.
3. Is Carmelo Anthony really ready for the spiritual weight of wearing Brandon Roy’s No. 7?
No. Anthony finally embraced his catch-and-shoot game last season, which resulted in a 38.5 percent clip from 3, but still took far too many long 2s and added nothing as a playmaker. And as you would expect, the defense is only getting worse as he ages.
With Hood on a minutes limit and Anthony limited himself, Derrick Jones Jr. is the favorite for starting 3 minutes. There’s also a chance Covington could slide up and let Anthony into the starting quintet, but the hope would be that starts are a formality in that situation. As a sixth man scorer, Melo can still add value. Just not in the stratosphere that Brandon Roy did.
4. What do the Blazers get from Anfernee Simons this year?
Portland had a chance to sign a veteran point guard this offseason and opted not to. That speaks volumes about the front office’s confidence in Simons, the 21-year-old guard entering his third season in the league. From the outside, it seems the organization he’s ready to step into the backup 1 role this year.
Past production doesn’t instill confidence. Year two was lackluster for Simons, as both his volume (8.3 points, 1.4 assists per game) and efficiency (50.2 true shooting percent, 46.9 effective field goal percentage) were uninspiring despite being a featured member of the rotation (1449 minutes). That being said, those minutes were vital for Simons’ development, and he did exhibit high-level flashes as a scorer and slasher. The Blazers’ main competitive advantage is also player development, so it’s feasible that Simons takes a leap this season.
With no significant additions to the backcourt, it looks like he’s in line for a lot of minutes, just like last year. A bench unit of Simons, Gary Trent Jr., Jones Jr., Anthony and Enes Kanter isn’t lighting the world on fire, but it could be a lot of fun if Simons can handle the backup 1 role in its entirety. That would also lighten the load on Lillard and McCollum during the regular season; seeing them prop up bench units can be grueling, and is often a waste of lineup optimization.
My guess is a similar workload and minutes load as last year, but with a spike in efficiency and playmaking chops. Those are the only ways for him to stick in the Blazers rotation with the stakes higher this season, so if he’s playing a lot, it means that head coach Terry Stotts likes what he sees.
5. Who plays a more important role in the frontcourt — Zach Collins or Harry Giles?
It’s funny to see these two in the same uniform after their draft picks were traded for each other back in 2017. Trivia aside, Portland’s investments in the frontcourt signal that Collins is at risk of losing his old role. Not only is Giles a Blazer now, but Kanter is also back in the red and black.
Giles has already made his imprint, putting up 18 points and 14 rebounds on his old Sacramento Kings team in Portland’s preseason debut. A stat line from a preseason game against the Kings doesn’t tell you much, but he looked very mobile as a roller and active as a rebounder. The tools and talent that made him the top recruit of his high school class were on display Friday night.
In all fairness, Collins didn’t get his chance in this one. He’s very talented himself, exhibiting flashes as a switchable big on defense and a stretchy one on offense. Problem is, he’s not particularly good at either: his steal and block rates are alarmingly low for that prototype, and he’s only made 32.4 percent of 253 career 3-point attempts. Missing most of last season with a finger injury didn’t help, a huge blow to his development in a crucial year.
The two provide different skill sets, so it’s very possible to see both get time in different matchups. I still give the nod to Collins. His shooting makes him a possible play at the 4 or 5, and also makes him easier to play with Derrick Jones Jr. If Giles ends up playing next to another 5 like Nurkic or Kanter, something has gone very wrong in Portland.