The Knicks avoided making any big mistakes in free agency, but did the front office do enough to contend for the playoffs this season?
Tom Thibodeau’s arrival in New York is supposed to bring respectability to the Knicks. What’s unclear is whether or not he’ll have the talent required to push this roster into the postseason.
The good news is that the Knicks front office avoided the temptation to do anything too aggressive in free agency. This is not a franchise that is one player away from title contention. New York needs to be methodical with its rebuild.
The bad news is that the team didn’t add a ton of young talent to get excited about. Obi Toppin is arguably the only offseason addition that will likely figure into the team’s long-term future. That’s not great for a team that’s well off the pace in the Eastern Conference.
Knicks fans want to see tangible improvement this season, but answering these five questions will be pivotal for Thibodeau and the team’s front office.
1. Where will Obi Toppin finish in Rookie of the Year voting?
Toppin has a legitimate chance to win the Rookie of the Year Award. He’s going to log a ton of minutes for the Knicks at the power forward position. It’s in everyone’s best interest to get him into the starting lineup as soon as possible.
The concern here is that Thibodeau will keep him on the bench behind someone he deems to be a more established veteran. Playing Tobbin behind Julius Randle might win the Knicks another game or two this season, but it’s pointless for their long-term future.
The odds do favor Toppin getting the starting nod as the team’s only meaningful young addition. He’s also going to get plenty of shots given the lack of other quality options on the roster. Look for him to average double-figure points and five or so rebounds per night en route to a top-three finish in Rookie of the Year voting.
2. The most important youngster to the Knicks’ future is .
R.J. Barrett is the regrettable answer to this question. The Knicks seemed determined to build their offense around the young wing. Nothing about his rookie season made that seem like a good plan, but this isn’t a front office bound by logic.
Things might be different if Toppin possessed star potential, but his defensive limitations are significant and how his elite college efficiency translates to an NBA role is still up in the air. The Knicks desperately need Barrett to grow into an elite scorer. That almost certainly won’t happen, but it’s New York’s only path towards relevance this season.
3. Which young player will inexplicably end up in Tom Thibodeau’s dog house first?
Kevin Knox has shown flashes of the talent required to become a decent NBA starter, but his game is poorly suited for the way Thibodeau wants this team to operate. There’s a strong chance he gets benched in favor of Reggie Bullock after a few early season defensive lapses.
He could turn into the poster child of why Thibs is a poor fit for a young, rebuilding team. Knox needs the freedom to play through mistakes if he’s ever going to develop into a valuable contributor. Yanking him in and out of the rotation is going to stunt his development.
4. Who leads the team in scoring this year and how depressing will it be if the answer is Julius Randle?
Randle averaged over 19 points per game last season, but his efficiency numbers were horrible for a bad Knicks’ offense. A big man with an effective shooting percentage under 50 percent doesn’t do his team any good.
His defensive limitations make him a good candidate to land on Thibodeau’s bench. That will open up a lot of shots for his teammates.
The problem is there’s no one qualified to take them. Barrett may lead the team in scoring because of his status as a front office favorite, but don’t rule out the possibility of Austin Rivers jacking up enough shots to average 20 points per contest. He’s just the sort of high-volume shooter that can put up big counting stats when no one else on the perimeter is willing to challenge him for offensive supremacy.
5. Who is the most effective contributor this season — Frank Ntilikina, Kevin Knox, or Dennis Smith Jr.?
Knox is the most talented player of this trio, but he and Thibs seem destined to butt heads. That leaves Smith and Ntilikina to fight it out. Give Ntilikina the slight edge because of his defensive quality. His ability to guard either guard spot should endear him to his new coaching staff. That isn’t necessarily a good thing for the Knicks in the long run, but he could enjoy a mild bounce-back season. He’ll never be anything more than a competent backup, but that’s a useful piece for a roster that sorely lacks quality.