The New Orleans Pelicans were in need of 3-point shooting before Darius Miller’s Achilles injury, which is a subtle blow to their floor-spacing.
No one can deny the New Orleans Pelicans had a terrific summer, especially for a team that was forced into trading away one of the 5-10 best players in the NBA.
They landed Zion Williamson with the No. 1 pick in the draft, as well as two potential steals in Jaxson Hayes and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. They turned Anthony Davis into three promising youngsters in Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram and Josh Hart, along with three first-round picks. They swiped sharpshooter J.J. Redick in free agency, kept one of the best two-way guards in the league in Jrue Holiday and bolstered the defense and locker room by landing Derrick Favors.
However, even for a team with a drastically revamped roster that will no longer have to play under the pressure of keeping its departing superstar happy, 3-point shooting is paramount in today’s NBA. The unfortunate truth is, this exciting young team has very little of it.
Darius Miller is hardly a household name, even in the Big Easy, where he’s played for five total seasons, but his ruptured right Achilles tendon represents a subtle but significant blow to the Pelicans’ half-court offense.
According to ESPN‘s Malika Andrews, Miller suffered the injury while playing 3-on-3 basketball and is expected to miss the next 7-8 months. After the 29-year-old inked a two-year, $14.3 million contract over the summer, this is particularly devastating news, especially since the second year of his deal is non-guaranteed.
From the Pelicans’ perspective, the injury isn’t quite as distressing, since his $7.3 million salary for 2019-20 could have just as easily served as a building block in any potential trade that executive vice president David Griffin fancied. That scenario hasn’t entirely gone out the window, though Miller’s time on the mend will obviously impact how other teams value him in trade negotiations.
In any case, Miller’s absence will still have a negative impact on New Orleans’ already cramped floor-spacing. The Pelicans ranked 24th in the NBA in 3-point percentage last year (34.4 percent), and Miller was their fourth-best shooter, knocking down 36.5 percent of his 5.3 long range attempts per game.
In fact, of the team’s 10 most efficient shooters from last season, seven of them (Wesley Johnson, Nikola Mirotic, Tim Frazier, Julius Randle, Anthony Davis, Ian Clark and now possibly Miller) won’t be suiting up for the Pels in 2019-20. The Pelicans still have E’Twaun Moore, their most efficient long range gunner at 43.2 percent, but he wasn’t a high-volume shooter, only taking 3.3 triples a night.
Losing that many of the team’s 10 best 3-point shooters doesn’t sound so bad considering how inefficient the Pelicans were from deep and how much turnover their roster has seen, but for all the praise Griffin received in turning NOLA’s situation around, he didn’t exactly put the ideal supporting cast around his new franchise player.
Zion Williamson is a lightning rod, the likes of which we haven’t seen enter the NBA since LeBron James. Given Zion’s skill-set, still developing jump shot and playmaking aptitude, the Pelicans would be best-served putting him in a LeBron or Ben Simmons kind of point forward role. That requires flanking him with shooters.
Unfortunately, the majority of Griffin’s offseason additions remain unproven on that front. Lonzo Ball sports one of the ugliest releases in the league and connected on just 32.9 percent of his 4.9 3-point attempts per game last year. Brandon Ingram was barely better, hitting only 33 percent of his 1.8 triples per game. Josh Hart’s percentage took a similar dive, as he canned just 33.6 percent of his 4.1 attempts per game.
New Orleans’ catch-and-shoot options are limited, and the three former Lakers will need to do much better on those looks moving forward (Hart shot 34.4 percent, Ball shot 31.8 percent and Ingram shot 31.5 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s last year).
Darius Miller may have only started 15 of his 69 appearances in the Big Easy last year, but the floor-spacing he provided as a 36.6 percent shooter on catch-and-shoot 3s would’ve felt like a breath of fresh air.
Furthermore, his ability to slide to the 4 in small-ball lineups as a 6-foot-8, 225-pound wing would’ve given Alvin Gentry extra versatility with his lineups. Now, Miller’s absence leaves them hurting for shooting from the 4-spot and lacking in size.
Derrick Favors will be a terrific frontcourt influence and defensive complement for Zion, but he can’t shoot beyond the mid-range. While attempting a career-high 1.0 3s per game last year, he only made 21.8 percent of his looks.
Rookie Jaxson Hayes has even less range, attempting zero 3s in his one year at Texas. This puts quite a bit of pressure on Nicolo Melli, a 29-year-old NBA rookie signed over the summer, to fill the void as a stretch-4.
As a career 38.7 percent 3-point shooter overseas, Melli has a proven track record with Fenerbahce and Bamberg over the last four years. However, this will be his first NBA season, and he’ll be adjusting to a faster, more athletic game with a longer 3-point line.
Melli won’t be the only source of 3-point relief, however. J.J. Redick is a dead-eyed sniper who’s made his living on diverting the defense’s attention with his off-ball movement and gravity. He knocked down 39.7 percent of his career-high 8.0 attempts per game last season, hit 42.4 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s and has showed no signs of slowing down at age 35.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker should also inject some 3-point potency into the lineup when he plays, as the rookie was a career 38.3 percent long distance shooter in his two years in college, during which time he averaged 4.5 attempts per game.
Before last season’s skid, Hart (39.6 percent) and Ingram (39.0 percent) looked like competent threats from downtown. Even Jrue Holiday, who somehow ranked 10th in 3-point percentage on a terrible shooting team last year, still made 35.4 percent of his catch-and-shoot looks.
With that being said, outside of Redick and Moore, the Pels don’t have a single proven 3-point NBA marksman now that Miller is hurt. Ingram and Hart took worrisome steps backward last year. Lonzo remains tragic from deep. Favors is a non-shooter. Alexander-Walker and Williamson are rookies, Melli will have to adjust to the NBA game and the Philadelphia 76ers proved that even a prolific gunner like Redick isn’t always enough to space the floor if no one else can shoot.
From here, ESPN‘s Bobby Marks reports the Pelicans can apply for a $3.6 million Disabled Player Exception, but it would only be granted if the league deems Miller will be out until June 15. They can try to trade him for help, or pursue their interest in Joe Johnson further, but more than likely, aid will need to come from within.
It’s crazy to think that a team will miss a backup who posted a ho-hum 8.2 points in 25.5 minutes per game last year, but it’s true. Unless Holiday returns to his early career form from 3 and both Ingram and Hart shake off disastrous numbers as a one-year fluke, the Pelicans are going to struggle to give Zion the room he needs to operate, especially when he’s flanked by Ball and Favors.
Darius Miller wouldn’t have started for this exciting and young Pelicans team, but he would’ve carved out rotation minutes as a small-ball 4 who could defend bigger players on the other end. New Orleans’ improved depth makes it tempting to overlook such a loss, but his absence shouldn’t be taken lightly for a team whose franchise cornerstones need all the floor-spacing they can get.